555
FXUS62 KCHS 260542
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
142 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while a
weak cold front approaches the area. This front will likely
linger near the area through mid-week, followed by another
front towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Satellite imagery reveals a thin boundary stretching from
Orangeburg County down through Dorchester County...the focus for
a few showers and thunderstorms that developed during the
evening. Still 1500-2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE across the region
although capped. But there could yet some isolated convection
through the overnight that develops along that boundary...or any
lingering boundary still out there. However, based on recent
radar trends, the forecast will remain dry through the overnight
for now. A touch of fog is also possible across the tri-county
area due to the evening rainfall.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s inland to around 80
degrees at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad troughing aloft will be present over the East Coast of the
U.S. Wednesday and persist through the work week. Similarly, at
the surface a trough will be present along the southeast
coastline on Wednesday. The coastal trough will slowly dissipate
towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in at the
surface from the east. Temperatures at 850 hPa will remain
anomalously warm through the week, with hot and humid conditions
expected each day. Heat index values are forecast to reach
around 103-106F inland, with a few coastal locations possibly
reaching 108F. At this juncture no Heat Advisory is planned,
however conditions will be borderline through the end of the
week. Each afternoon isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, a typical summertime pattern with
pulse convection. PWATs will remain slightly elevated, around
1.6-1.7 inches with CAPE values forecast to reach around 1500
J/kg in the afternoon. Therefore, any thunderstorm could become
strong to marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts as the
main hazard.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A similar summertime pattern will prevail through the weekend
and into early next week as high pressure builds in aloft along
with coastal troughing at the surface. Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
with hot and humid conditions. Head index values will likely
peak around 103-105F inland with some locations along the
coastline reaching 108F. Head Advisories may be required.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: A brief bout of MVFR cloud cover is milling
around the Charleston tri-county area, possibly from the
isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Latest forecast will
have a brief period of MVFR conditions at KJZI. Otherwise,
overall VFR conditions will prevail overnight through
Wednesday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. Recent guidance trends suggest
KSAV will have the higher probabilities for showers and storms,
although with low confidence in timing/duration. Forecast will
have VCSH at KSAV as well as KCHS during the afternoon as a
start.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be
possible at all terminals with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns with a weak pressure gradient
across local waters overnight. Southerly winds up to 10-15 kt
early evening are expected to diminish to 5 to 10 kt overnight.
Seas will range between 2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday: Generally tranquil marine conditions
are expected through the period. Winds will gradually back each
day and veer overnight, strongest along the coastline as the
afternoon sea breeze/overnight land breeze develops. Seas should
average 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...