404
FXUS62 KCHS 152012
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will linger over the area this weekend before
slowly lifting back northward early next week. High pressure
will then ridge in from offshore mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
This Evening: A weak cold front located just to our north will
slowly move southward, likely reaching our northern SC counties
around sunset. Afternoon radar imagery indicates isolated to
scattered convection developing north of our area and moving
southward. This matches up fairly well with the CAMs and the
HRRR. Though, they have slight differences on the coverage.
Either way, we`re expecting isolated to maybe scattered
convection through this evening, mainly over our SC counties.
Afternoon surface temperatures are peaking in the upper 90s,
except cooler at the beaches. Likewise, SPC Mesoscale Analysis
indicates MLCAPEs up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg across our
northernmost counties, which is a bit higher than earlier today.
DCAPEs will be around 1,000 J/kg. So while there is a lot of
mid-level dry air in place per the model soundings, any stronger
storms that manage to develop could generate strong to damaging
winds. The convection will gradually decrease into this
evening.

Tonight: Mid-level ridging and a broad 592 dam High will
gradually build over the Southeast. The cold front will likely
be over our northern SC counties later this evening. It`s
expected to slowly move south, and stall near the SC/GA border
by daybreak Sunday. Little to no convection is expected over
land areas overnight. Though, there could be some convection
across the coastal waters. Lows will generally range from the
lower 70s far inland to the mid 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: Aloft, a strong mid-upper lvl ridge will prevail,
remaining centered over the Southeast United States. At the sfc,
high pressure centered across New England will slowly build
south across the Southeast, nudging a cold front into the region
that eventually stalls across the local area. Much of the area
should remain rain- free, but sufficient moisture and
instability should support few to scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon into early evening, mainly
away from the coast. Conditions will remain warm as well, with
high temps in the low-mid 90s, warmest inland. Overnight lows
will also remain mild, generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s
inland to mid-upper 70s near the coast.

Monday and Tuesday: Aloft, the pattern will remain similar with
a ridge of high pressure elongated across the Northeast to
Southeast United States that results in large scale subsidence
locally. At the sfc, a stalled front will become more diffuse
and/or lift back north of the area early week before high
pressure builds across the region from the Atlantic by Tuesday.
There are some hints of weak coastal troughing developing along
the southern periphery of the ridge just off the Southeast
Coast, which could result in some showers and/or thunderstorms
across coastal areas, mainly south of Beaufort, SC and into
southeast Georgia each afternoon/evening. High temps in the
upper 80s nearshore to lower 90s inland Monday should trend a
degree or two cooler on Tuesday with an onshore flow in place.
Overnight lows will range in the mid-upper 60s well inland to
low-mid 70s closer to the coast Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging shifts north mid-to-late week, with height falls
aloft leading to diminishing upper subsidence. At the surface,
high pressure migrates off the Northeast coast and toward a more
seasonable Bermuda High location. Expect the forecast to trend
back toward a more summer-like precip pattern, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms along and inland of the sea breeze and
lesser storm activity overnight. Temps remain within a few
degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Mainly VFR. Isolated convection associated with an
approaching cold front could approach KCHS and KJZI this
afternoon and evening. However, the probabilities of direct
impacts to either TAF site remains too low to include a mention
of VCTS for now. Will amend if radar trends show otherwise. Any
convection is expected to dissipate later this evening, with
the overnight being dry.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV
terminals, but there will be low probabilities for brief flight
restrictions due to showers and/or thunderstorms impacting the
terminals each afternoon/evening. Highest chances for flight
restrictions should occur at the KSAV terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak cold front is expected to move south through our
waters late, possibly stalling near the SC/GA line around
daybreak Sunday. Sustained winds from the S or SE in the
evening will veer overnight, becoming E by daybreak Sunday. Seas
should average 2-3 ft.

Sunday through Wednesday: The pressure gradient will remain
fairly weak through Monday as a front becomes nearly stationary
across the area and begins to deteriorate. However, a modest
uptick in wind speeds (especially near the coast) and gradually
building seas is anticipated early into the middle of next week
as the pressure gradient is somewhat enhanced by high pressure
extending across the area from the north and perhaps weak
coastal troughing occurring along its southern base along the
Southeast Coast. During this time, east-northeast winds could
gust to 15-20 kt with seas building upwards to 3-5 ft, largest
across offshore GA waters. Southeast swell is anticipated to
increase during the second half of next week, which could prompt
Small Craft Advisories for 6 ft seas.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB