Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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638 FXUS61 KCLE 261758 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves southeast across the area this afternoon. High pressure will return on Thursday and Friday before another low pressure system impacts the area on Saturday. High pressure builds back in Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1:30 PM Update... Severe thunderstorm watch issues for areas along and northeast of a Cleveland to Youngstown line through this evening. Damaging winds is the primary threat but large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Confidence is increasing in the flash flooding risk as WPC has increased the ERO to a slight risk generally along and east of I-77. Previous Discussion... Low pressure centered over southern Quebec will continue to move east moving a strong cold front across the area this afternoon into the evening. Currently the area lies within the warm sector of the low, allowing for moisture content to gradually increase along with temperatures as lows this morning have only dropped into the 70s. This afternoon, as the front approaches from the west, a shortwave trough will push south across the region. This mid-level energy coupled with ideal placement in the right entrance region of the upper level jet will provide enhanced support through the atmosphere for storm development. At the low levels, strong frontogenetic forcing coupled with modeled MUCAPE values near 2000 J/kg and wind shear values between 20-25 knots will assist in sustaining updrafts. The best timing of all these ingredient to come together and create strong to severe storms will be between 17-22Z. To highlight this threat, SPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather along a line extending from Cleveland, OH to Bucyrus, OH and areas east. The primary hazard concerns are strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. WPC has also issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk ERO for the potential of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns in areas that receive multiple rounds of rain. High temperatures today will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Areas that receive precipitation will quickly cool, so the areas that should receive the warmest temperatures will be across the eastern counties. The cold front will continue to track to the southeast of the area tonight allowing for high pressure to begin to build east and all showers and thunderstorms to end by Thursday morning. High pressure will remain dominant on Thursday, keeping conditions dry with mostly sunny skies returning. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s with slightly cooler highs on Thursday as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period will start quiet on Thursday night with high pressure across the region with a clear, dry air mass and northwest flow aloft. Temperatures should take a good diurnal nose dive with lows in the 50s and even some upper 40s, if full decoupling occurs. The surface high will shift east for Friday and a warm front will lift north across the area and allow for southerly return flow and moisture advecting back into the region. High temperatures will be back around normal into the 80s. Still do not believe that any rain will get going during the daytime hours with dew points not getting into the 60s until late afternoon. By Friday night, some scattered showers and storms will be possible with the isentropic lift and the increasing moisture across the region. In addition, a cold front will move closer to the area and some showers and storms could start arriving from the northwest. Saturday and Saturday night should have widespread showers and storms with the cold front moving through the area and will go with categorical PoPs, as the pattern has repeated for several cycles. There could be some conditional threat, depending on how unstable the atmosphere is ahead of the main front. If showers and storms have large coverage on Friday night into Saturday, then temperatures may be more subdued and left a more generic shower and storm threat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday and Monday appear quiet with high pressure across the region behind a cold front. Temperatures will be below normal both days with highs mostly in the 70s, as a dry air mass in northwest flow takes over. A reinforcing cold front will cross the area on Monday morning and there could be some stray showers on Sunday night with that. However, most of the ensemble members keep the area dry and will retain the persistence forecast with no PoPs. High pressure shifts east for Tuesday and the upper ridge enters. This will allow for temperatures to surge back into the 80s and better moisture returns to the region. A low pressure system over the Upper Midwest will extend a cold front toward the area on Tuesday night and have some lightly increasing PoPs through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Areawide rain is occurring to start the TAF period with an area of thunderstorms extending from Toledo, over Lake Erie and across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Variable conditions are observed but MVFR/IFR conditions with primarily visibility are occurring within thunderstorms. Heavy rain could briefly bring visibility down to below 1SM and gusty winds and some hail are possible, primarily in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Storms gradually exit from northwest to southeast between 20-01Z this afternoon/evening. Patchy fog and low clouds may be possible late tonight into tomorrow morning. For now introduced MVFR ceilings but IFR ceilings could be possible, especially for the eastern half of the forecast area. VFR conditions expected by Thursday afternoon with some scattered cumulus clouds lingering during the afternoon hours. Winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots will persist through today before becoming light and variable after sunset. Winds will become north at 6-10 knots during the day Thursday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the lake today. Southwest flow will briefly increase during the daytime hours before flow shifts to the northwest tonight. Overall, the onshore flow tonight into Thursday appears weak and will likely not generate enough waves to merit any marine headlines. Flow will become lighter and northerly with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region, as high pressure moves east. A cold front will cross the lake on Saturday. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the front and could approach the need for a headline. The front will cross the lake by Sunday and northwest flow will take over the basin. This onshore flow should be stronger than tonight`s and there could be some notable wave generation to allow for at least a moderate swimming risk. High pressure will build into the region early next week and reduce the winds on the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Sefcovic