Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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737 FXUS61 KCLE 220621 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 221 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure influences the region through Saturday. A low pressure system and associated cold front will move east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. High pressure will build back into the region Sunday night through Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:30 PM Update... No changes with this update. Previous Discussion... Afternoon convection has developed along a lake breeze across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Slightly lower temperatures and dew points this afternoon have kept MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg and storms fairly isolated. As with the past week, any convection will diminish with sunset as we lose daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight settle into the upper 60s to lower 70s with patchy fog possible once again tonight in areas that receive storms this afternoon and evening. Surface boundary lifts north over Lake Erie tonight as upper level ridging builds southwest ahead of low pressure currently centered over the Upper Midwest. As we become sandwiched between these two systems, southwest flow will increase while also transporting warmer air into the region. Much warmer and unpleasant tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. Made no changes to our heat headlines with a Heat Advisory still in effect areawide through 8 PM tomorrow. We should remain fairly dry for much of the day tomorrow before the aforementioned low pressure drags a cold front toward western zones late Saturday night. Most of the impacts along and ahead of the front will occur on Sunday. More information can be found in the short term discussion below... && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure tracks across Upper Michigan towards southern Quebec on Sunday. A ribbon of high theta-e air will slide northeast ahead of the cold front which is likely to produce expanding coverage of showers through the morning and into the afternoon. PW values will be near 2 inches and expect to see an uptick in thunderstorm activity as the front pushes south into higher instability air during the afternoon, especially south of a line from Findlay to Mansfield to Youngstown. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the forecast area and expect heavy rain to also be a concern, especially if any training of storms occurs with uni-directional southwesterly flow ahead of the front. Much drier air does arrives from west to east through the afternoon and should bring an end to precipitation. Sunday will be another hot and muggy day although with high temperatures peaking in the 80s. Heat index values are still likely to surpass 90 degrees generally along and west of I-77. A much welcomed break from the humidity will come on Monday as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region and dewpoints drop back into the upper 50s/near 60. High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal seasonal values but the lower humidity will be noticeable. Overnight low temperatures will also range from 55-65 which will be more pleasant. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper trough quickly moves east on Tuesday with a broad but somewhat flat ridge across the Plains and retrograding westward towards the Intermountain West region. This results in some uncertainty as we transition to more of a northwest flow pattern by late next week. Temperatures warm again on Tuesday but dewpoints remain low enough that we are only expecting a chance of showers and thunderstorms in NW Ohio. Heat index values could surpass 95 degrees again in portions of Northwest Ohio. By Wednesday with see better moisture return ahead of a stronger cold front with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms across the whole area. This front is expected to bring cooler temperatures by Thursday, especially from north central Ohio to Northwest Pennsylvania where some area may have a day with high temperatures in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The airspace will be in the warm sector of a low pressure system that will move through the Great Lakes region this weekend. Return flow across the region will allow for a typical generic warm sector with increased southwest flow and afternoon cumulus. Unlike previous days, believe the forecast will be mainly dry with winds allowing for dew points to mix out and prevent widespread clouds and any precipitation. Cumulus will fade with sunset and wind gusts will settle overnight. Mid and high clouds will enter late in the TAF period as the associated cold front with the low pressure system approaches from the northwest and any precipitation mention will be after 06z/Sun. Outlook...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday afternoon with non-VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Good marine conditions continue on Saturday on Lake Erie with lake breezes on the eastern half of the lake during the afternoon. Southwest winds increase Saturday night into Sunday to 15 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches from Michigan. Winds will veer to westerly and eventually northwesterly behind the front Sunday into Sunday night. Some models are starting to indicate a little stronger winds behind the front but consensus is not very strong yet. Conditions look to approach Small Craft criteria but appear to remain just below for now. Shower and thunderstorms may also impact Lake Erie through early afternoon before the front pushes south. High pressure builds over the Great Lakes on Monday with northwest winds decreasing. Another cold front is forecast to cross Lake Erie on Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... The records for Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...KEC CLIMATE...CLE