068
FXUS61 KCLE 141715
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
115 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area Friday morning,
followed by a strong upper level ridge that will persist through
the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
100 pm update...No major changes to the forecast with this
update. Weak/diffuse cold front will continue to progress
southward out of the forecast area through late afternoon. Kept
mid range chance pops across the southern part of the forecast
area where shower/thunderstorm development potential is
greatest. Modest destabilization will continue over the next
several hours, as MLCAPE values increase to near 1500 j/kg with
deep layer effect shear of 40-50 kts. This environment will be
supportive of damaging winds and large hail where storms can
develop and organize. SPC Day 1 outlook update within the past
hour has introduced a slight risk to portions of Morrow, Knox,
and Holmes counties, with a slight northward adjustment of the
existing marginal risk. In agreement with this threat area over
the next 4-5 hours before any convective activity shifts south
and east of the forecast area.

Original Discussion...
Quiet and more seasonable weather will arrive on Saturday with
highs generally upper 70s to lower 80s. This will likely be the
last "nice" weather day for a while as a prolonged heat wave
begins to develop on Sunday and is expected to persist through
much of next week. More details on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level high over the southern plains region will migrate
eastward and build over the eastern third of the CONUS for the end
of the week and into early next week. The main story is a building
heat wave over the region that has been in the forecast for a few
days now with temperatures well into the 90s by Monday. Only far NW
PA will potentially remain in the upper 80s, but conversely, on the
western end of the CWA upper 90s should be expected. The
ground/surface continues to dry out overall despite a little rain
yesterday in NW OH which will contribute to the ability of the
temperatures to climb. Will need to see if there will be any cloud
cover, but likely just some cumulus fields for the CWA. The
operational long terms differ a little bit with one having lower
500mb heights and 850mb temperatures, and also suggesting convection
possible with enough layer moisture while the other has a stronger
dome of high pressure aloft and less convective coverage in the
return flow setup. Leaning towards the hotter and drier solution for
this forecast into Monday. Immediate lakeshore areas may be a couple
degrees cooler Monday, but the southerly wind component will likely
eliminate much of that advantage. Dewpoints mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heat wave will continue into the long term portion of the forecast
towards the end of next week. No real changes to the pattern
overall. The upper level high will likely shift towards the
northeastern US, but this will not change the sensible weather much
for our CWA. Expect 90s to be the norm through the week and very
little in the way of rain chances with no organized systems moving
into the region with the largely blocked upper level pattern. Will
be needing rain by the end of the long term forecast as it stands
with this issuance. Dewpoints persist in the mid 60s to lower 70s
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure
builds into the region in the wake of a cold front. An isolated
SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out at KMFD and KCAK over the first
two hours of the period until the front pushes south of the
region, but confidence and likelihood too low for TAF mention
at this time. Afternoon cu in the wake of the front will give
way to mostly clear skies through the remainder of the period.
North-northeast winds generally expected through the period in
the 10-12 kt range through sunset, then becoming 6 kts or less
overnight, and increasing to 7-10 kts after daybreak Saturday
through the end of the period.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With a cold front coming through, onshore winds prevail today
through tonight 15-20kts for the central and western basins of Lake
Erie with 1-3ft wave heights, becoming 10-15kts Saturday with a more
easterly component to the winds and waves gradually subsiding to the
1-2ft range. From Sunday on, expect offshore winds to prevail with
high pressure situated to the east of the region and nearshore wave
heights generally a foot or less through the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several
days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday June 21 are
listed below for our official climate sites.


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kahn
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...