Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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564 FXUS61 KCLE 230535 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 135 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure glides across the Great Lakes on Sunday while dragging a cold front east through the region. High pressure builds overhead behind the front for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM Update... No changes needed with this update. Temperatures are currently in the 80s with heat indices still in the mid to upper 80s. Expect one last night of very warm overnight temperatures in the 70s. Previous Discussion... The heat and humidity come to an end as low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will glide east toward the Great Lakes region tonight. As the low moves into the region it will drag a cold front east across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tomorrow. Expect showers and storms to develop along the cold front to enter western zones early Sunday morning. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate increasing instability and shear, roughly 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 knots of 0-6 km shear, by Sunday afternoon and evening along and east of I-71. This moderately unstable and sheared environment has prompted a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) from the Storm Prediction Center with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Extreme eastern portions of our forecast area were clipped with a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather where the best instability and shear exist. Best potential for strong to severe storms looks to be between 1 and 9 PM tomorrow afternoon and evening based on the current timing of the frontal passage. Lingering moisture and northwesterly flow will keep PoPs in the forecast along the lakeshore in NE OH and NW PA through Sunday night. Strong southwesterly flow tonight and increased cloud cover will allow for one final night of warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Broad northwesterly flow behind the cold front will usher in cooler, more seasonable air. Near normal high temperatures tomorrow in the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows settling in the low to mid 60s Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday will finally bring relief from the prolonged hot and humid pattern as the mid/upper trough axis digs through the eastern Great Lakes as the associated surface low tracks across New England. This will allow the cold front to sweep east of the area quickly Monday morning, but the surface low becoming vertically stacked beneath the mid-level low will lead to wraparound moisture during the morning. The latest NAM suggests scattered showers associated with this in far NE Ohio and NW PA, so added slight chance to chance PoPs there. Any showers will gradually exit Monday afternoon as surface ridging builds in from the west, before settling overhead Monday night. Highs Monday will be much cooler with 75 to 80 expected in NE Ohio and NW PA and low to mid 80s in north central and NW Ohio. Lows Monday night will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s, so a good night to finally open the windows. The heat will remain close by due to broad/flat mid/upper ridging across the Rockies and Plains, and this will allow hot/humid conditions to quickly surge back into the region ahead of another northern stream mid/upper shortwave diving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night. An associated surface low tracking into the central Great Lakes Tuesday will pull a warm front through the region leading to strong warm air advection before the trailing cold front approaches Tuesday night. This will cause high temperatures Tuesday to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points once again rising through the 60s, followed by overnight lows in the 70s Tuesday night. In terms of convection, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Tuesday as the warm front lifts through on the nose of stronger theta e advection, but the better chance will come with the approaching cold front Tuesday night, so have PoPs gradually spreading east late Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. Due to overnight timing and the best forcing staying to the north until Wednesday, coverage of showers and storms will probably not be very widespread Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deterministic and ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement on the cold front crossing the region Wednesday as the mid/upper trough axis deepens across the Great Lakes in response to the shortwave moving east. However, timing of when the front will cross on Wednesday remains uncertain. This makes it impossible to say at this point what degree of severe weather threat there will be, but given seasonably strong jet dynamics and the warm, humid, unstable airmass, at least somewhat organized strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. Surface high pressure building in and mid/upper troughing overhead will bring dry and much cooler, less humid conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. This will not last long though as confidence is increasing that elongated mid/upper ridging will quickly flex back northward across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes Friday through Saturday in response to a strong mid/upper trough progressing from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains. This will pull heat and humidity back into the region for the end of the week into next weekend, along with increasing chances for thunderstorms as a baroclinic zone/theta e gradient will be nearby on the northern periphery of the thermal ridging (heat dome). Highs in the mid/upper 80s Wednesday will cool into the upper 70s/low 80s Thursday before quickly warming back into the mid 80s to low 90s Friday and solid low 90s Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area this morning ahead of an approaching line of storms being observed in northern IL/IN and southern MI. This line of storms will continue to progress east towards the region this morning, initially impacting KTOL and KFDY between 08-09Z. Within these showers, heavy rainfall will likely reduce visibilities to MVFR distances, possibly IFR in the heaviest showers. There is an overall weakening trend with the line given the diurnally unfavorable environment, but still expected thunder to be heard at most stations through this morning. This initial line will depart east by late morning, but a secondary round of storms is expected along the cold front that move east today. Highest confidence in the storm potential is along and east of I71, although if western counties rebound quick enough cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two for KTOL and KFDY. Confidence in this occurring is limited, so opted to only mention additional thunder at terminals east of those. Quite a bit of uncertainty remains with the strength of convection this afternoon given these morning storms, but any terminal impacted will likely see periods of MVFR and possibly IFR given the heavy rain potential. In addition, MVFR ceilings will push east along the cold front, but should rebound for all terminals around sunset tonight. Southwest winds this morning will ramp up to 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots into the early afternoon. Behind the cold front that moves through, winds will shift to become northwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots initially, but are expected to quickly weaken by 00Z Sunday to be 5-10 knots across the area. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday. Additional non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds are expected to increase to 15-25 knots quickly Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. This will be a short duration of 4 hours or so Sunday morning into early afternoon in the western basin, but will last into Sunday evening in the central basin and especially the eastern basin. With this in mind, issued Small Craft Advisories for the western basin from 12 to 18Z, but ran the central and eastern basins from 17 to 00Z. The longer fetch will build 2 to 5 foot waves in the central and eastern basins in the afternoon and evening, so issued Beach Hazard Statements from the lakeshore of Cuyahoga County to Erie PA for a high risk of rip currents. Winds will quickly turn NW behind the front Sunday evening and decrease to 10-15 knots Sunday night and Monday. Light winds are then expected until Tuesday afternoon when SSW winds increase to 10-15 knots behind a warm front, becoming WSW at 10-20 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Winds then turn N and decrease Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure returns. && .CLIMATE... The records for Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for PAZ001. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Garuckas CLIMATE...