Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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259 FXUS61 KCLE 241036 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 636 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will continue through Tuesday before a low pressure centered over northern Quebec moves a warm front north late Tuesday followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will return to the area for the end of the work week. Another low pressure is expected to move through the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 630 AM Update... An area of heavier showers are approaching the lakeshore between Port Clinton and Cleveland this morning, which will briefly bring deteriorated conditions for this morning commute. These lake enhanced showers should quickly end over the next few hours as high pressure and drier air push in. Extended the slight chance PoPs for lake enhanced showers into this morning, but aside from that no other changes were needed with this update. Previous Discussion... A surface trough lingering over the eastern half of the area continues to develop scattered showers this morning. With a nearly 20 degree difference between the lake and 850 mb temperatures, marginal lake induced instability has develop and allowed for a corridor of showers and lake effect clouds to push south across the area, primarily centered near Cleveland. Over the next few hours, high pressure will continue to build east, ultimately drying out the low levels and cutting off the precipitation. This high pressure will remain dominant through tonight, allowing for widespread dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Highs today will climb into the low 80s for western counties and upper 70s across eastern counties. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s. By Tuesday morning, the aforementioned high pressure will shift east towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast, allowing for a warm front associated with a low over Ontario to move north across the area. This will result in an increase of WAA across the area again. In addition, a mid-level shortwave looks to move across northern Ohio Tuesday morning which could support a decaying MCS moving into NW OH. With a fairly stable airmass in place north of the warm front, showers and storms should continue to decay into the area or should remain elevated. Confidence in any of these lingering storms becoming severe is low, however cannot rule out a rumble or two of thunder and locally heavy rainfall. By Tuesday afternoon, a LLJ of 40+ knots noses over the area which may assist the increasing WAA, synoptic forcing, and low level moisture to create additional showers and thunderstorms, although confidence is low. The evolution of these storms for the first part of Tuesday will be critical in the forecast during the short term period. To account for the potential for severe weather, SPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk of severe weather and WPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal ERO across much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The Tuesday night into Wednesday forecast is a very conditional shower and thunderstorm forecast for the region. The conditional nature of the forecast will be on shower and storm development over the upper Midwest on Monday night and the trajectory of any activity. If the storm complex angles southeast toward the local forecast area, then that could be an issue during the day on Tuesday and wipe out the higher extent of instability across the region for Tuesday night. There could be some recovery in this scenario, but it would be limited with the poor timing on the diurnal cycle. An alternative scenario is that storms angle west of the forecast area and the atmosphere remains warm and unstable. This would allow for other MCVs that develop on Tuesday to enter the region on Tuesday night with an environment more sustaining for showers and storms, potentially strong to severe. In the end, there is low confidence in any particular scenario at this time and there will be more clarity 24 hours from now, as ongoing convection elsewhere will help dictate which solutions are still in play. The final cold front will cross the area on Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, there could be a window for additional showers and storms with intensity dependent on the environment based on what occurs on Tuesday/Tuesday night. With the front, temperatures and dew points will fall, clouds will diminish, and winds will shift to the northwest, ending any rain threat by Wednesday evening. Thursday and Thursday night will be a return to quiet weather with high pressure across the Great Lakes region with northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will take a dip below normal with widespread 70s and lows on Thursday night could take quite the tumble down into the 50s and even upper 40s, if generally clear skies and calm conditions allow for decoupling to occur. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday appears to be a recovery day back to hot and humid across the region with high pressure sliding east and a warm front lifting across the area. Temperatures will reach widespread 80s and dew points will recover back into the 60s by evening. Since it will take some time for moisture to recover in the region, believe that most of Friday will be dry and some glancing showers/storms could enter on Friday night as debris convection from areas further west. An upper trough and surface cold front will enter the area on Saturday and allow for showers and storms across the forecast area and have PoPs ticking back up to mid-chance to likely. There could be some concern for strong to severe convection, if timing remains favorable during the peak heating hours. The front will move out on Sunday and high pressure will build into the region allowing for dry conditions and a trend to cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... There are still some lake enhanced showers moving inland which have the potential to briefly impact KCLE, however the current path of the showers over the lake suggests the showers push inland west of the terminal so opted to not include in the TAF. By late morning, all lake enhanced showers should end. Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this period as high pressure becomes dominant over the area. By Tuesday morning, a decaying MCS over the midwest will approach far NW OH, but exact timing remains a bit uncertain. Opted to introduce VCSH for western terminals with this update. Northwest winds of 5-10 knots will persist through today before becoming light and variable tonight. As a warm front moves north on Tuesday, winds will increase to 5-10 knots from the south at the tail end of this period. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. && .MARINE... The northwest flow across the lake this morning is pretty marginal with winds generally 15 kt or less (most are actually 10 kt or less) and waves at reporting buoys are under 3 ft. Therefore, will cancel the marine headlines early with some mention for 2 to 4 ft waves through the morning hours. High pressure across the region will allow for flow to become variable today on the lake. High pressure will move east for Tuesday and return flow across the lake will be with increasing southwest flow and there could be a window for a Small Craft Advisory headline if mixing allows for winds to get to 20 kt on the lake. Offshore flow during the daytime hours on Tuesday would allow for a wind only Small Craft Advisory. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible on the lake on Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will cross the lake on Wednesday and flow will become northwest. The pressure gradient over the lake does not look impressive enough to have substantial northwest flow to allow for a great increase in waves. Flow will become variable with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Sefcovic