271
FXUS61 KCLE 220543
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief area of high pressure will build over the area into
Sunday. A warm front will lift north Sunday afternoon followed
by a cold front moving east early Monday. An active pattern will
impact the area through Wednesday before high pressure returns
at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM...The area remains precipitation-free this evening with
high clouds beginning to arrive from the west in anticipation of
the next system by late Sunday. Increased coverage of fog
overnight, generally along and east of the I-77 corridor. Fog
could be dense in spots, particularly near the PA border.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the
Lake Huron lingers along the far eastern edge of the northwest
Pennsylvania counties, which has allowed for all convection to
shift east of the area this afternoon. Scattered cu are still
being observed on satellite across those counties, but no
additional storms are expected today. Elsewhere across the area
this afternoon, temperatures have soared into the mid to upper
80s except for locations impacted by the lake breeze that have
remained in the upper 70s to low 80s. Would not be surprised if
some sites reached 90, but not anticipating any record breaking
temperatures.

Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into
the upper 50s to low 60s with the coolest temperatures focused
across northwest Pennsylvania and the Mahoning Valley. With
cooler temperatures, light winds, and a stabilizing airmass, a
low level inversion will develop across these areas, trapping
moisture in the lowest levels and likely resulting in at least
patchy fog. Will have to continue to monitor for a more
widespread threat, but given the uncertainty capped it at patchy
for now.

On Sunday, another low pressure system will move northeast
through the region, moving a warm front north Sunday afternoon.
This will allow for the area to remain in the warm sector of the
low with enhanced warm air advection allowing temperatures to
climb into the mid to upper 80s for much of the area (exception
is northwest Pennsylvania where temps will be cooler in the
upper 70s to low 80s). Conditions should remain dry for much of
Sunday before showers and isolated thunderstorms begin to spread
west to east Sunday evening and overnight ahead of the
approaching cold front. Given the less favorable diurnal
environment, not expecting anything severe, but cannot rule out
locally gusty winds possible. This should be the first
widespread chance of precipitation the area has seen in a while,
although rainfall totals at this point are looking to remain
0.4 inches or less. Overnight lows on Sunday will remain mild,
only dropping into the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation remains on track during the short term although with
some adjustments to timing and pops. Weakening surface low pressure
is forecast to reside over the area on Monday as shortwave energy
aloft shifts east of the area. Some low level isentropic ascent
continues, particularly in the east while mid-levels undergo drying
in the wake of the shortwave. Expect to see a little better coverage
of showers in the morning, with scattered showers lingering into the
afternoon. Clouds, moisture, and a cooler airmass will support high
temperatures dropping back into the low to mid 70s.

Another good opportunity for rain comes Tuesday ahead of a trough
lifting out of the Plains towards the Central Great Lakes. Surface
low pressure if forecast to track across northern Indiana into
Southeast Michigan through Tuesday night. Southwesterly flow brings
another good push of moisture advection into the area on Tuesday
with overrunning in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere.
Rainfall amounts Sunday night through Tuesday night are forecast in
the half to one inch range. This is not likely to alleviate drought
conditions but does bring some needed precipitation. Timing of
precipitation on Tuesday will likely impact temperatures with an
earlier arrival time limiting warming. Highs will be with in a
couple degrees of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have trended a little more in line in the long term with low
pressure departing to the east on Wednesday. A cut-off upper level
low is forecast to reside over the Plains with a ridge aloft
expanding back over the Midwest and western Great Lakes. Another
trough will be over New England and deepen off the East Coast. This
pattern suggests some residual moisture will linger into Wednesday
with surface high pressure strengthening north of the area for
Thursday and Friday. We should trend back towards dry conditions
with seasonable or gradually warming temperatures. We will need to
monitor the evolution of the cut-off low to the southwest and any
potential tropical systems trying to develop over the Gulf of Mexico
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Expect fog and low stratus to continue to spread east across
interior NW PA and far NE OH tonight with periodic non-VFR
conditions likely at KERI/KYNG and potentially KCAK through
12-13Z. Still have the highest confidence in non-VFR conditions
at KYNG. Otherwise, VFR is expected through at least late
afternoon/early evening before precip begins to spread east into
the area this evening into the remainder of the TAF period.
There may be quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels so it
may take time for conditions to deteriorate, but non-VFR
ceilings and visibility may expand as far east as KCLE/KMFD by
the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be light and variable or out of the south at 5 knots
or less before becoming south/southwesterly and increasing to 5
to 10 knots at western terminals during the afternoon and
eastern terminals this evening. A lake breeze will produce
northeast winds 5 to 10 knots at KERI/KCLE this afternoon into
early this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms and low ceilings Sunday night into Monday. Non-
VFR likely Monday night through Tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms and low ceilings. Non-VFR conditions may linger
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and waves of 10 knots or less continue through midday on
Sunday with high pressure overhead. Lake breezes are expected again
Sunday afternoon followed by winds developing out of the east ahead
of low pressure moving into the Central Great Lakes. Winds increase
to 10+ knots by Sunday evening, then veer to southerly Sunday night
as low pressure passes north of Lake Erie. Winds on eastern Lake
Erie ramp up to 15-20 knots before shifting to the northwest at 10-
15 knots behind a cold front Monday. Another area of low pressure
tracks northeast across Lake Erie Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Winds look to remain 15 knots or less as they veer from southerly to
northwesterly behind the low. Some adjustments are possible this
week as there is some spread in track and timing by mid-week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...KEC