179
FXUS61 KCLE 160753
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and New England
today will gradually weaken and move east tonight and Tuesday to
allow a tropical low to move from the Carolinas into the
Appalachians. This weakening low will reach the Ohio Valley by
Wednesday before gradually exiting east Thursday to allow high
pressure to build in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet and very pleasant weather will continue today and Tuesday
as the strong mid/upper ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great
Lakes and New England that has been remarkably persistent
gradually weakens and drifts eastward. Southeasterly flow around
the slowly departing ridge axis will allow a tropical
depression/likely tropical storm to move northwestward and make
landfall in South Carolina this evening before gradually
turning northward and moving into the Mid Atlantic and
Appalachians by late Tuesday. The spiral bands of rain will
fight abundant amounts of dry air over the Ohio Valley, and the
remnant ciculation is likely to slow down by Tuesday night as
ridging strengthens to the north across the Great Lakes, so
slowed down the onset of shower chances Tuesday afternoon. With
this being said, have slight chance PoPs gradually expanding
into eastern Ohio and western PA, generally west of I-77 late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most areas will not see more than
a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rain since the bands
will be narrow given the drier air. The better chances for some
rain will hold off until Tuesday night and Wednesday. The main
impact tonight and Tuesday will just be increasing high and mid-
level cloud cover from east to west after another mostly sunny
Monday.

Highs in the low/mid 80s today will cool slightly into the upper
70s/low 80s Tuesday. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to
around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will mark the first potential of any
precipitation for the area in a while. A low pressure system over
the southeastern US (currently dubbed Tropical Cyclone 8 by NHC)
will gradually move north, potentially impacting the area Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Models are in a general consensus
that Wednesday will be the best chance to see any precipitation,
however the exact timing remains a bit uncertain as models diverge
in agreement on how this low will interact with the dominant high
that has remained over the northeastern states. With the current
forecast track of this system, the eastern portion of the CWA is the
most likely to see any rainfall, which will not be ideal for the D2
drought conditions across northwest Ohio. Will have to continue to
monitor this system, but remaining cautiously optimistic that the
area will see any appreciable precipitation. With increasing cloud
cover associated with this system expected to spread across the
area, high temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit cooler, only
reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

Remnants of the aforementioned low will linger in the region on
Thursday, but with an upper level ridge nosing northeast into the
area, this system will push further east of the area and any
lingering precipitation should end by Thursday evening and remain
dry through the overnight hours. Highs on Thursday will climb into
the mid to upper 70s again with skies gradually clearing from west
to east. Overnight lows throughout the period will drop into the
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday, a dry airmass returns to the area as an upper level ridge
again becomes dominant across the region. This will present another
period of dry conditions, mostly sunny skies, and another climb to
above average temperatures through the weekend. Highs will climb
into at least the low 80s for much of the area with overnight lows
remaining in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure continues
to extend westward across the region from New England. Light SE
winds this morning will turn NE at 5-10 knots this afternoon in
northwest and north central Ohio and along the lakeshore. The
winds will likely stay SE over interior NE Ohio. All winds will
return to SE late this evening through tonight while becoming
light again.

Outlook...VFR expected through Tuesday afternoon. A low
pressure system may approach the region from the southeast and
bring non-VFR conditions Tuesday night into Thursday, but
expect VFR conditions to return by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region to start
the week with a very similar pattern compared to the last couple
days expected. Winds this morning will start out from the southeast
at 5-10 knots before becoming northeasterly at 10-15 knots this
afternoon. This will allow waves to build to 1-3 feet, but not
expecting any headlines needed. This exact pattern is expected to
repeat itself on Tuesday. Tuesday night, a low pressure system over
the southeastern US is expected to begin to move north, allowing for
winds to become sustained from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots. A
chance of precipitation returns to the forecast on Tuesday and winds
will increase to 10-15 knots, allowing waves to build to 1-3 feet
across the central and western basins. On Thursday, another upper
level ridge pushes east and end any chance of showers. The
positioning of the area under this ridge will allow for winds to
remain sustained from the northeast at 5-10 knots through Friday
night before becoming more southeasterly for the weekend. Not
expecting any marine headlines at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Campbell