Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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774 FXUS61 KCLE 150522 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 122 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight and persist through the weekend. A strong ridge will remain over the region through much of next week providing well above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No changes to the forecast at this time. 7 PM Update... The cold front has cleared through the forecast area and any shower/storm threat is done for the night. Some orphaned mid- level clouds remain in NW Ohio and close to the front, but conditions will trend to clear with the loss of diurnal heating. Light north to northeast winds will be favored through Saturday. Most of Previous Discussion... High pressure builds into the area tonight and persists through Saturday night, with mainly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area, with areas near Lake Erie only reaching the low 70s. Lows tonight and Saturday night will generally be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... An dominant ridging pattern is expected through the short term period, with the axis of the ridge moving over the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This ridge coupled with the associated surface high and dry airmass will keep conditions dry Sunday and Monday. The one thing to watch on Monday is a shortwave upper level vort max that pushes along the northern fringe of the ridge which will be located near Lake Erie. This may result in some isolated showers/thunderstorms over and/or near Lake Erie, but confidence is higher north of the entire area, so opted to maintain dry conditions for now. Both days can expect a diurnal cu field to develop, which will give a few breaks in the direct sun, but with increased WAA and very dry surface antecedent conditions, expecting temperatures to begin to climb. On Sunday, highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s before climbing into the 90s for the entire area Monday. The exception will be the far western tier of counties which may touch 100 degrees on Monday. In addition, higher dewpoint values ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s will result in apparent temperatures values exceeding 100 for areas along and west of I77. Not much relief will be felt with overnight temperatures only falling into the upper 60s to low 70s both nights. This period ultimately marks the start to a prolonged period of well above normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The dominant ridging pattern discussed in the short term period is expected to persist through much of the long term period. Near the end of the period on Friday, the upper level ridge axis is expected to shift to near the East Coast along with the surface high. This means that the aforementioned prolonged well above normal temperatures will likely continue through Thursday and Friday with highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, and heat indices nearing 100. With such a prolonged heat wave, there are the potential for heat related illnesses, especially for the vulnerable populations and those that do not have places to cool down. Stay tuned for updated forecasts, especially about when the area will see some relief. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with VFR to persist through the TAF period. No precipitation is anticipated through the TAF period. Winds are generally out of the north early this morning, 5 to 8 knots. Winds will generally favor a northerly direction through much of today. Winds will gradually favor a more northeasterly direction by later this evening and overnight. Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible in the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday, though confidence is low. && .MARINE... High pressure has begun to build over the area and will persist through much of next week, slowly meandering towards the East Coast. Winds tonight will be from the north-northeast at 10-15 knots, weakening on Saturday to 5-10 knots. This will result in waves of 1- 2 feet, especially in the central basin. On Sunday, winds of 5-10 knots become southeasterly allowing for waves less than 1 foot. The winds shift again on Monday to become southwesterly but remain at 5- 10 knots as the high pressure is dominant. Winds will generally maintain a southerly component through the end of the week with little change expected in the overall pattern. No marine headlines are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018) 06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018) 06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931) 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016) 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Campbell CLIMATE...