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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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936 FXUS61 KCLE 260544 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary boundary south of the area will lift north across the region as a warm front tonight. A cold front will quickly follow, pushing southeast across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM Update... Showers over NW PA will dissipate over the next couple of hours. Precipitation may try to sneak into southwestern zones late tonight and before sunrise Wednesday, but guidance is trending a bit drier so capped PoPs at slight chance (15-24%) through about 09Z before rain chances increase. Still looking like the best chances of precipitation will arrive with the cold front Wednesday afternoon. Previous Discussion... A lull in precip has commenced across the area as the morning convective complex has dissipated over the region, with a largely stable and subsident environment in place across the local area. The evening should remain fairly dry for most of the area, with some chances for a shower or storm mainly across northeast OH and northwest PA as a weak wave moves southeast across the lower Great Lakes. Attention turns to the late overnight period, when upstream convective activity may sneak back into the western part of the forecast area into early Wednesday morning. Low confidence in the evolution of this convection, and current thinking is most of the activity will remain west and southwest of the area until Wednesday morning. Lows overnight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. More widespread convection is expected across the area through the day on Wednesday as a cold front pushes southeast across the area. SPC is highlighting the southeast half of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather on Day 2, which looks reasonable given the expected environment. There should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support semi organized storm clusters capable of damaging winds, especially low level lapse rates around 8.5C/km. Highs Wednesday will be in the low 80s. The front will clear the area to the southeast Wednesday evening, with dry conditions and cooler temps for Wednesday night. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A mainly quiet short term period is in store across the region as high pressure slides east through the Great Lakes. Thursday`s weather will bring welcomed relief from the heat with highs in the 70s to near 80. Slightly warmer weather is expected on Friday with highs in the low to mid-80s as a warm front lifts north across the area. Precipitation chances will begin to increase late Friday night as an upper-level trough moves east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main concern through the long term period will be on Saturday as a cold front moves east through the area. Favorable shear will be in place ahead of the front to sustain organized convection, although there remains uncertainty on the available instability given anticipated widespread cloud cover and lingering, morning precipitation. Behind the front, quiet and more seasonable weather will return as high pressure settles back in across the Great Lakes through at least Monday. Another upper-level trough is expected to move east across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday, though uncertainty remains on the strength and timing of the feature for any potential impacts to our area. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Widespread VFR conditions will persist into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers ahead of the boundary will begin to arrive around 12Z today for western terminals, becoming more widespread along the frontal boundary late morning/early afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will progress east throughout the day, likely accompanied by period of at least MVFR visibilities and ceilings with heavy rainfall. All showers should exit to the east at the end of this TAF period, allowing conditions to rebound to VFR across the area. Will have to monitor for patchy fog potential at the start of the next TAF period. Winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots will persist through today before becoming light and variable after sunset. Locally higher winds are possible in stronger thunderstorms that develop and impact terminals. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .MARINE... Have extended the Small Craft Advisory across the rest of the lake through 10 PM as wake-low winds behind the dissipating complex of thunderstorms continue to be strong at times, with periodic offshore gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Following this evening, a mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the week. A cold front will usher in northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday evening and overnight, but think winds should be too light to warrant any headlines. Next opportunity for headlines could be on Saturday behind another cold front, as winds shift towards the northwest to north, 15 to perhaps 20 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Maines SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Kahn