Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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510 FXUS61 KCLE 240832 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 432 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the local area today as low pressures moves northwest of the area tonight. This low will extend a weak cold front across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build from the northwest for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The first batch of rain with the warm front is entering the southwest portion of the forecast area this morning. This will spread through at least I-77 over the next several hours. A larger batch of rain with some embedded thunder is entering Southwest Ohio this morning and will largely remain south of the area; however, additional rain showers will try to build to the north of this feature and cascade across the area during the late morning hours and have categorical PoPs through 18z or so. There appears to be a lull in activity across the region this afternoon before more showers and storms develop with a wave of energy that will outrace the main trough and support the low pressure system northwest of the area. Unfortunately, believe that the amount of rain and cloud cover will be quite substantial early in the day and have lowered temperatures from the prior forecast and will have highs just limp into the lower 70s this afternoon. With this change, believe that there will be less instability for storms to work with and believe that the severe potential is trending down. There is still some notable shear with 30-40 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and that could help organize something with a bite to it. In the end, the Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk south to align where there will be at least some better instability to get some storms with a bite. The southern portion of the forecast area remains in the Marginal Risk and there will be a chance for a storm with damaging wind potential. Rain is expected to scatter out from west to east tonight as the main low departs to the north of the region. This low will extend a weak cold front across the area on Wednesday and could be a source to rejuvenate shower activity over the eastern third of the forecast area on Wednesday afternoon. Have likely PoPs returns in for far NE OH and NW PA with the front. Low temperatures tonight will stay elevated in the 60s with clouds and rain in the region. Highs on Wednesday will be pretty close to today, perhaps a touch higher with more areas staying dry. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will exit to the east Wednesday night, allowing surface high pressure to build over the region for Thursday. Any lingering showers will taper off by Thursday morning and dry weather is favored through at least Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, a complex upper level pattern will develop over the southeastern CONUS as a tropical low moves inland from the Gulf Coast. Moisture will likely stream north into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys late Thursday and Friday, although there`s still uncertainty in whether or not the moisture reaches as far north as the local area. Maintained low-end chance (around 30 percent) PoPs for southwestern portions of the CWA with slight chance PoPs else northeast into portions of northeastern Ohio. Moisture may increase a bit more Friday night as remnants of an upper low lift towards the area so PoPs increase slightly, but it`s possible that the majority of the short term period remains dry if moisture ends up being suppressed to the south and southwest of the area. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s to lower 80s throughout the period, although a rainier outcome may result in slightly cooler temperatures in the southwestern part of the CWA. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s each night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A vertically stacked low will meander somewhere across the Middle Mississippi and/or western Tennessee/Ohio valleys this weekend into early next week, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the placement/strength of the low and the resulting precipitation chances across the CWA. Periodic showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible throughout the long term period, but maintained low PoPs until confidence increases in upcoming days. Above normal temperatures will gradually moderate to near normal values as the weekend progresses, but similar to the short term period, a rainier/cloudier forecast may result in cooler temperatures than currently forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will trend downward through the morning hours as a warm front will bring additional showers to the region and bring lower ceilings, largely below 2 kft. There could be some periods of IFR conditions during the morning and early afternoon hours, but this may hinge on sustained rain showers during the first part of the day. There seems to be consensus on a break in the rain activity during the afternoon hours. Additional rain and perhaps some TS will develop during the evening hours and move across the area and have some windows of VCTS at most terminals. Conditions will try to favor MVFR through the day but some more IFR could develop with any TS this evening. Rain should exit toward the end of the TAF period with MVFR ceilings remaining in the region. Winds will be east to southeast, shifting to the south through the period. Some stronger southerlies will develop over NW PA and eastern Lake Erie and have some gusts in the KERI TAF. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions may linger Tuesday night into Wednesday with residual rain and low ceilings in the region. Strong northeast winds are expected across the region on Friday. && .MARINE... South winds 6 to 12 knots this morning will become southeasterly and increase as a warm front lifts into the region this afternoon. Downsloping effects in the eastern basin will produce winds of 20 to 25 knots with 10 to 20 knots more likely west into the central basin. Although higher waves will be focused into the open/Canadian waters, strong offshore winds have necessitated a Small Craft Advisory from Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH to Ripley, NY between 21Z today and 12Z Wednesday. Will need to monitor winds from roughly Avon Point to Geneva-on-the-Lake as the afternoon and evening progress, but currently thinking nearshore winds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range. Winds gradually diminish to 10 to 15 knots and shift to the southwest as a cold front approaches the lake early Wednesday morning and expect flow to become northwesterly behind the front Wednesday night. Flow will quickly shift to the northeast as high pressure builds over the lake Thursday. The pressure gradient will tighten significantly as low pressure moves inland from the Gulf Coast towards the end of the week and additional Small Craft Advisories are likely as northeast winds increase to 15 to 25 knots Friday into Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Maines