387
FXUS64 KCRP 212310
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Mid level ridge positioned over the brush country this afternoon
will result in warm and mostly dry conditions.  Pockets of deeper
moisture along the coast will maintain a slight chance of showers
through early evening. Expect partly cloud skies overnight with some
light patchy fog toward morning across the inland coastal plains.
Should be less fog tonight than last night however. The mid level
ridge will shift eastward to the coast on Sunday while weakening
slightly. Meanwhile drier air in the h85-h7 levels advects into
the area from the gulf. This should provide a slightly stronger
cap on Sunday reducing our rainfall chances. Given the slightly
weaker ridge, max temperatures may be a degree or two less on
Sunday and just above climatology. Light onshore winds will
persist through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Mid-level ridging will be flattening out as we start the long term
period with troughing digging in from the north. The future of this
trough will be the driver for our upcoming weather and the details
of it have not shown great consistency in details yet. Latest
guidance cuts off a lot farther south, which could actually push the
cold front we have been mentioning into our area.  Confidence in
this happening is low at this time with ensemble guidance still all
over the place as far as if the front can make it through.
Temperatures above normal early in the week should drop a couple of
degrees though by late week with increased moisture and the
troughing, regardless of frontal passage.  This trough being
anchored over us should also help to steer the disturbance currently
being monitored in the NW Caribbean to the east of our area. There
remains a 60% chance for development on this disturbance, and if it
develops would push some increased swells toward our coast by
mid/late week.  At this point only a modest increase is noted in the
forecast, but this could lead to an increased rip current risk and
potentially some minor coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening into
tonight. Patchy fog is expected to develop tonight once again with
a low chance of isolated dense fog which could drop ALI and VCT
down to IFR. Due to low confidence, went with a tempo at this
time. Any fog that develops tonight should dissipate by tomorrow
morning returning all sites back to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the
weekend along with isolated showers. The combination of light
winds and sufficient low level moisture may lead to tropical
funnel development Sunday morning. Light onshore flow persists
into early next week before increasing to weak to moderate by mid-
week. Swell heights are expected to increase the latter half of
the week as a disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  77  90  76 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          95  73  94  72 /   0   0  10   0
Laredo            96  76  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             94  74  94  73 /  20   0  10   0
Rockport          92  80  92  78 /  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        92  76  92  74 /  20   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       88  81  88  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...JCP/84