868
FXUS64 KCRP 230913
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
413 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The mid level ridge that is currently over the region is expected to
shift eastwards early next week concurrently with a mid to upper
level trough digging into the Central Plains. Guidance has come into
agreement with a front stalling to the north around the Hill
Country. This will allow for some moisture to advect into the region
with the accompaniment of the sea breeze during the afternoon hours
which will allow for a low to medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This should remain mostly in check today thanks due
to the influence of the ridge though highest chances will be in the
Victoria Crossroads. With the front sagging a little further south
tomorrow rain chances will increase to a medium chance along the
Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads. Highs will generally be
in the 90s across the region cooling into the 70s overnight. Thanks
to the influx of moisture in the region there will also be a minor
to moderate risk for heat stress related impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A cut off low will develop over the Central Plains by the middle of
the week which will help push a cold front across Texas. Yes! A cold
front in September! Now, we need to remember that cold fronts that
make their way to South Texas in September are not going to bring a
significant temperature drop. What we will see is an medium chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves over the area with
moderate instability and abundant moisture (PWATs around 2.0
inches). Behind the front, we will notice only a slight temperature
drop but with drier air moving in, we will notice a drop in the heat
index values so our days will feel a lot more comfortable.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of showers
and thunderstorms with signs of organization over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Conditions are favorable for development and a
tropical depression or storm is expected to form over the next few
days. NHC has given this a 70% chance of development over the next 2
days and a 90% chance of development over the next 7 days. While no
direct impacts are expected for South Texas, increased swells could
lead to an increased risk of dangerous rip currents and minor
coastal flooding by late this week. Please keep up with this
forecast at hurricanes.gov.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Overall thinking remains the same with MVFR VSBYs briefly
occurring from ALI to VCT due to patchy fog, and MVFR CIGs across COT
early Monday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will
prevail across S TX through Monday evening. Surface winds will be
light and variable overnight, becoming east to southeast around 10KT
during the day Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow over the next few days will become
weak at times during the night-time hours accompanied by a low to
moderate chance for showers. Winds will shift to north later this
week and increase in response to a cold front and a developing
tropical cyclone. This could lead to brief Small Craft Advisory
and increased swell late this week. There is low to moderate
chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday.
Please visit hurricanes.gov for more information on tropical
cyclone development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  76  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
Victoria          94  74  94  72 /  40  10  50  20
Laredo            95  75  94  76 /   0   0  20  20
Alice             94  74  93  74 /  20   0  40  20
Rockport          92  79  92  76 /  30  10  40  30
Cotulla           97  76  96  75 /   0   0  20  30
Kingsville        93  76  92  74 /  20   0  40  20
Navy Corpus       89  80  88  79 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE