999
FXUS64 KCRP 192341
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto is continuing to better organize as it churns
in the southwestern Gulf. Winds and rainfall varies greatly within
each quadrant. Here`s the current information about Alberto:

Location is about 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville heading
west-southwest at 9 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are 40 MPH and the
minimum pressure is 995 MB. Alberto is expected to continue it`s
current trajectory making landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico
near Tampico early tomorrow morning.

Precipitable water (PWAT) value as of the special 18Z balloon launch
is 2.63" and may even approach 3 inches with our evening sounding as
moisture continues to increase over the region. A flood watch
remains in effect through midday tomorrow to account for these
conditions.

Current hazards that remain in effect below:

Rainfall and Flooding: There remains uncertainty in rainfall amounts
across the region, with expected totals varying significantly
depending on the location of rain bands. Several inches have fallen
over the region in the last 24 hours with some locations reporting
over 5 inches thus far and more rain is expected. We anticipate an
additional 2 to 7 inches of rain area-wide with localized higher
amounts up to 10 inches through Friday.

Tornadoes: A few tornadoes warnings have already gone out
throughout the day today. The tornado threat continues to be a
hazard across the CWA as bands from Alberto continue to stream
onshore.

Wind: The disturbances circulation is getting better organized
and is expected to continue this until landfall, with strong winds
extending up to 415 miles from the center. Local observations
recorded gusts up around 56 mph near Kingsville. Coastal counties
may see winds up to 45 MPH tonight.

Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is ongoing, with numerous reports
of water encroaching on dunes and roadways. This flooding is
expected to persist through at least Thursday and a Coastal Flood
Warning is in effect through 00Z Friday, as high tide levels are
expected to remain between 2-3 feet. The risk of rip currents
remains high and the Rip Current Risk advisory has been extended
through midday Friday due to slow-to-subside long-period swells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As Conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week,
another system could bring more rain over the weekend. The early
part of next week looks drier as upper-level ridging takes hold.
Continue to monitor updates from the National Weather Service for
the latest information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A mixed bag of MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities can be
expected as we continue to experience rainbands across the area
associated with Tropical Storm Alberto. This is expected to
continue through tomorrow with gusty winds (20-30kts)
accompanying these rainbands as they pass through the area. MVFR
ceilings are expected to prevail by midday tomorrow across all
sites with some potentially brief pockets of VFR ceilings at the
eastern sites. Confidence is a little lower on this at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dangerous marine conditions continue this evening and a Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong onshore
winds are occurring. Wave heights of 14 feet up to around 19 feet
across the coastal waters through Thursday. Deep moisture is still
moving into the area with a 80-100% chance of showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly
for Friday, but increase again for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  89  78  89 /  90  80  70  70
Victoria          77  89  75  90 /  70  60  20  50
Laredo            76  88  76  90 / 100  80  50  80
Alice             76  89  76  91 /  90  70  50  70
Rockport          82  92  81  92 /  90  70  70  70
Cotulla           76  90  76  93 /  90  70  30  50
Kingsville        78  89  77  90 /  90  80  70  80
Navy Corpus       82  89  82  90 /  80  80  80  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...NP/92