Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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281 FXUS64 KCRP 131144 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A weak shortwave from 700-500mb along with PWATs near 2.0" will allow for a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms today, moving inland in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Highs will range from around 90 along the coast to around 100 over the Rio Grande Plains today and Friday. The lingering enhanced moisture and light winds will allow for additional tropical funnel clouds to develop today. Tonight through Friday will be dominated by a ridge moving east across the southern Great Plains. This will cause subsidence over South Texas and PWATs will drop to slightly below normal at 1.5". Therefore, only contain a silent and very low chance (10%) of precipitation with the sea breeze in the afternoon Friday. The decrease in moisture will greatly limit any chances of tropical funnel clouds. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns early next week - Increasing moisture and rain chances next week If you are guessing that we will be hot and humid next week, you are correct! An inverted trough will result in a surge of tropical moisture into South Texas with PWATs approaching 2.5 inches. This moisture, combined with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will lead to dangerous heat index values beginning early next week. This inverted trough and increased moisture will also lead to a low to moderate chance of rain across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads early next week, with low chances spreading into the Brush Country by midweek. NHC is keeping an eye on this disturbance and continues to reference it in the 7-Day Outlook. The chances for development have increase to medium (40%) chance over the next 7 days. Should this develop, this could further increase our rain chances and increase our risks for coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents. We continue to have low confidence that this will actually impact our area, but we will continue to monitor it. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with brief MVFR vsby between 10-14Z in VCT/ALI. There is a low chance of rain showers across the Coastal Plains today, but many showers are dying as they move from the waters into the Coastal Bend. Have VCSH mentioned at CRP and ALI today where model guidance is in more agreement. Winds are light and variable this morning then will shift southeasterly this afternoon, generally staying below 12 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Light to moderate winds will increase to more moderate onshore flow Monday night into Tuesday. With an area of disturbed weather, wave heights are forecast to increase through next week. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The NHC has given this disturbance a medium chance of tropical development in the next 7 days. Low rain chances (20-30%) today through Friday will increase to medium to high early next week (50-80%). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 78 94 78 / 20 10 10 0 Victoria 93 74 96 72 / 20 0 10 0 Laredo 102 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 75 98 74 / 20 0 10 0 Rockport 92 81 93 81 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 101 78 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 77 96 75 / 20 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 20 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...EMF/94