Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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533 FXUS64 KCRP 141926 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A subsident mid level ridge extending across the Southern U.S. will continue to dominate our weather in the short term. Our atmosphere will continue to dry out with precipitable water values dropping from near 2" this morning to around 1.50" on Saturday and 1.25" by Saturday Night. Thus we should see fewer clouds and at most only a stray shower. The low level flow will remain weak tonight and early Saturday, however the gradient tightens some by Saturday afternoon as a trough moves into the central plains. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above climatology and Heat Indices will remain in check and generally less than 105. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Key Messages: - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development - Rain chances increase next week The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the Bay of Campeche for potential development during the early to middle parts of next week. Currently, the chance of formation stands at 50% over the next seven days. Deterministic models show good agreement on the formation of this closed surface low with a consensus on a westward trajectory into Mexico. However, keep in mind that this forecast can change as we are still quite a few days out. Regardless of development, there is medium to high confidence that an influx of tropical moisture will lead to increased local rain chances through next week as PWAT values increase to 2.25-2.70". The NBM along with the global ensemble models continue to show a large spread of about 2.75-3.50" rainfall between the 25th and 75th percentile next week, with the most significant days begin mid-week. Therefore, confidence remains low at this time in regards to rainfall amounts across the region. Seasonal temperatures are expected to continue Sunday through Tuesday with areas along the coast in the lower to mid 90s and areas in the Coastal Plains to the Brush Country in the upper 90s to near 102 degrees. As we head into next week with the expected precipitation, daytime highs are expected to be cooler than normal with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s region wide. As the moisture begins to increase next week, heat indices are expected to climb into the 105-110 degree range Sunday through Tuesday with a low chance of heat advisory conditions Monday and Tuesday afternoons. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Expect scattered VFR clouds to continue spreading inland across the coastal plains into the brush country this afternoon with light onshore winds. Winds become light and variable overnight with mostly clear skies. Cant rule out some patchy light fog (MVFR) near the VCT Terminal toward morning, but not confident enough to include in the TAF. Winds will briefly gust to near 20 knots in Laredo this evening. Clouds will remain scattered and winds will be light to start the day Saturday as weak high pressure persists over the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected through Saturday Night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Sunday with winds strengthening to moderate to strong Monday. Depending on the development of the expected disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, winds could increase to over 20 knots by mid-week. Medium to high chances of rain are expected across the local waters from Monday through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 79 94 / 0 20 10 30 Victoria 74 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 30 Laredo 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 75 97 74 98 / 0 20 10 20 Rockport 82 94 82 93 / 0 20 10 30 Cotulla 78 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 77 97 77 96 / 0 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 83 92 83 92 / 10 20 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...JM