Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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371 FXUS64 KCRP 141734 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Things will be drier today as ridging aloft builds in and PWATs fall to ~1.5". There will still be some low (10-20%) chances of rain over the waters today and tonight, with chances increasing to 15-30% for Saturday, mainly over the offshore waters where moisture will linger. While we all know we need some rain, the bright side of lower moisture is that heat index values will be a bit lower over the area. High temperatures will be much the same as they have been, with highs in the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country. Even so, there could be a few locations that briefly reach Heat Advisory criteria, especially along the southern Coastal Bend. At this time, a Heat Advisory will not be issued as confidence is too low. Conditions will be similar for Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Key Messages: - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development. - Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances next week. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the Bay of Campeche for potential development of a broad surface low late this weekend into early next week. Currently, the chance of formation stands at 40% over the next seven days. Deterministic models show good agreement on the formation of this closed surface low with a consensus on a westward trajectory into Mexico. However, keep in mind that this forecast can change as we are still quite a few days out. Therefore, further development still remains a bit uncertain. Regardless of the storm`s progression, there is medium to high confidence that an influx of tropical moisture will lead to increased local rain chances through next week. The expected moisture increase is partly due to mid-level ridging building over the Southeastern CONUS, creating a pathway for substantial tropical moisture (PWAT values around 2.0-2.5 inches) to move along the Middle Texas Coast. Consequently, the region can expect stronger east to southeast flow due to an enhanced pressure gradient, resulting in larger swells that may cause elevated tides, coastal flooding, and an increased risk of rip currents. Regarding temperatures, highs will range from the low 90s to 100s from Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 105-110 expected. By mid-week, temperatures will gradually decline due to increased cloud cover and rain changes, leading to more temperate conditions compared to what we have experienced as of late. Beginning Wednesday, highs are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s across much of South Texas, with a few areas reaching the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Expect scattered VFR clouds to continue spreading inland across the coastal plains into the brush country this afternoon with light onshore winds. Winds become light and variable overnight with mostly clear skies. Cant rule out some patchy light fog (MVFR) near the VCT Terminal toward morning, but not confident enough to include in the TAF. Winds will briefly gust to near 20 knots in Laredo this evening. Clouds will remain scattered and winds will be light to start the day Saturday as weak high pressure persists over the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow through the weekend will increase to more moderate to strong levels late Sunday into early Monday. The potential development of a closed surface low is expected over the western Gulf, allowing wave heights to increase through next week. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium chance, 40%, of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Rain chances are set to increase with this area of disturbed weather, 50-80%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 79 94 / 0 20 10 30 Victoria 74 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 30 Laredo 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 75 97 74 98 / 0 20 10 20 Rockport 82 94 82 93 / 0 20 10 30 Cotulla 78 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 77 97 77 96 / 0 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 83 92 83 92 / 10 20 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...JM/75