055
FXUS64 KCRP 241126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts.

- Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents continues
  through Monday.

An area of high pressure over west TX this morning will expand over
the region and will be influenced under high pressure and subsidence
for the foreseeable future. Although a slight weakness could still
provide enough lift for some showers today. The weather pattern will
include increasing heat indices, partly cloudy skies, increased low-
level moisture accompanied by isolated to scattered showers/storms,
mainly this afternoon but a few showers are possible this morning.
Coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents is still a concern
as sea swells slowly recede.

Today: Expect drier conditions aloft to promote clearer skies and a
decrease in PWAT`s which are progged to drop during the early part
of this week to around 2.0 inches which is still above the 75th
percentile. There`s a slight chance (20-35%) for some showers this
morning and afternoon, any activity should subside this evening.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between
105-109 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s area-
wide with around 80 degrees on the island.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and dry. Afternoon highs will range in the
low to upper 90s across the region with heat indices climbing into
105-109 range with some locales in the southern Coastal
Bend/northern Brush Country possibly exceeding 110 degrees briefly.

Coastal Conditions: Swell heights and periods are still elevated at
around 4 ft and 8 seconds respectively. The latest run of the P-ETSS
has tides running around or slightly higher than 2.0 ft MSL early
this week. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk are
both continue to be in effect through this evening. Will continue to
monitor seas and reassess these hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
  impacts

- Rain chances return this week

The upper-level ridge aloft is expected to weaken mid-week before
relocating towards the southern CONUS allowing for a short wave to
move through the region resulting in low (15-25%) chances for
showers and thunderstorms. As the ridge relocates to the southern
CONUS and elongates west to east late this week, embedded
shortwaves in the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse
across the region leading to low (15-25%) chances late this week.
Rain chances will increase a bit more to 25-40% late this weekend
into next week as some models are showing an mid-level inverted
trough sweeping through the area.

Despite being under control the mid to upper-level ridge for most of
the week, the best subsidence will be found north of the region
which will help us be a bit cooler, and in turn, keep our heat index
values at reasonable levels. Current probabilities of exceeding
heat indices of 109 degrees (Heat Advisory conditions) are 25-40%
Wednesday through the weekend from the Coastal Bend to the Brush
Country and 10-20% to exceed 114 degrees (Excessive Heat Warning
conditions)for the aforementioned area. Despite heat index values
being at reasonable levels for this time of the year, the entire
region will still have a moderate risk of heat-related impacts
Tuesday through the end of the week due to poor overnight
recoveries with lows in the 80s for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

ALI has been quite bouncy overnight between LIFR and MVFR due to
fog. Expect this to continue until 14Z. Otherwise all other sites
are VFR currently still have MVFR conditions in TAF for VCT/CRP.
All sites should return to VFR this morning around 15Z. Reduced
VSBY`s possible in and around any showers that may occur this
morning or afternoon as they move onshore with around a 25-30%
chance for showers across VCT/CRP/ALI. Lower chances and
confidence in showers for LRD/COT but will depend how far inland
the bands of showers gets before dissipating, so have opted to
leave in VCSH. Tomorrow night will be less likely for fog as
things start drying out. so far only have ALI going to MVFR but
IFR conditions can`t be ruled out for ALI. All others are expected
to remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected for much of the week
before increasing to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots)
Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week with seas
subsiding to 2-3 feet Wednesday before increasing back to 3-4 feet
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  79  92  79 /  20   0  10   0
Victoria          91  77  92  77 /  30   0  20   0
Laredo            94  78  97  78 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             94  76  95  76 /  30   0  10   0
Rockport          92  82  92  82 /  20  10  10   0
Cotulla           98  79  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        92  77  93  78 /  30   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       90  82  90  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...BF/80