206
FXUS64 KCRP 232040
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts.

- Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents continues
through Monday.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving westward across
the Coastal Bend toward the southern portions of the Brush Country
this afternoon, will diminish through the evening hours as an
inverted trough exits to the west. Additional showers will be
possible once again overnight into Monday morning as a weak embedded
short wave tracks west across S TX around the southern periphery of
a mid/upper level high pressure system. Although mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere are progged to be drier Monday due to the
high pressure, abundant moisture will remain in the lower levels
with PWATs remaining around 2 inches through most of the day Monday.
This will maintain a low to medium (20-40%)chance of mainly showers
across the southern portions of S TX. Thunderstorms may be possible,
but will be isolated and brief as the upper level high will provide
some weak subsidence across S TX.

The mid to upper level high pressure will maintain warm and humid
conditions across S TX. Highs on Monday are forecast to be generally
in the 90s, but combined with a very humid airmass, will lead to
heat indices generally from 105 to 109 across S TX. A few locations
may briefly reach around 110 in the afternoon.

Swell heights and periods remain around 8-9 sec this afternoon, but
are forecast to decrease tonight through Monday. However, given the
continued easterly flow across the gulf, the swells may be slower to
subside than what models are currently indicating. The P-ETSS does
keep tide levels around 2ft MSL during high tide at Aransas Pass
Monday through mid week. Therefore, have extended the Coastal
Flood Advisory and High Rip Current risk through 7 PM Monday.
This may need to be extended longer, but confidence is too low
given the downward trend models are showing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Key Messages:

-Dangerous heat returns this week

-Rain returns late this week


The long term looks to remain on track from the previous issuance.
There is a mid to upper level ridge that is expected to weaken as we
progress through the week and gradually transition to the east over
the course of the period. The influence of this ridge combining with
the above normal moisture for this time of year in climatology
(~2.00-2.20 inches) will allow for some dangerous heat related
impacts. Heat indices are expected to be in the ball park of 109-
114F beginning Tuesday, though the best chances to see these values
will likely be this weekend.

Towards the end of the week, a shortwave is going to ride the
periphery of the ridge down into the area. With the presence of the
above normal moisture already present in the area, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as a result and remain through the
rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the afternoon hours. The better chance for TSRAs will be CRP, ALI
and LRD TAF sites. Rain chances diminish this evening then
increase overnight into Monday morning. Otherwise, expecting VFR
conditions to prevail through much of the TAF period with brief
periods of MVFR conditions either due to convection or possible
patchy fog overnight. IFR conditions can not be ruled out with the
heavier downpours. Surface winds will generally be light from the
east and southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There is a low (10-20%) chance for showers tonight through
Monday morning. A weak to moderate east to southeast flow will
become light tonight and will continue Monday and Monday night. Weak
to moderate onshore flow is expected for much of the week before
increasing to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots) Friday. Rain
chances will be low throughout the week with seas subsiding to
2-3 feet Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  91  79  92 /  10  20   0  10
Victoria          76  94  75  93 /  10  20   0  20
Laredo            77  96  78  96 /  20  20   0   0
Alice             76  94  76  94 /  10  20   0  10
Rockport          81  92  81  92 /  10  20   0  10
Cotulla           78  98  79  99 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        77  92  78  93 /  20  30   0  10
Navy Corpus       82  89  82  90 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...TE