031
FXUS64 KCRP 180521
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 446 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Coastal Bend and
adjacent Coastal Waters. The NHC has issued a Potential Tropical
Cyclone One Advisory for an area of low pressure across the Bay
of Campeche that has a high chance of developing into a Tropical
Depression or Tropical Storms over the next day or two. Strong to
very strong winds and deep moisture are expected along the Texas
Coast, which is expected to be well north of the tropical system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
development.

- Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of South Texas starting
Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

- Coastal Flood Watch and High Risk of Rip Currents in effect from
tonight through Thursday morning.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of
disturbed weather across the Bay of Campeche. There is a high 70%
chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm developing
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by mid week. It is still
too early to know if any tropical systems will approach S TX at
this time. Regardless, heavy rainfall with the potential for flash
flooding is a major concern for S TX.

Deep moisture will continue to push into S TX tonight with PWATs
expected to be at the 99th percentile by Tuesday. The combination of
the very deep moisture and an approaching tropical wave from the
east will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday through Tuesday night with the heavier rainfall expected by
Tuesday evening. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch is in effect
beginning Tuesday evening.

There is also an increased risk of rip currents and coastal flooding
beginning tonight due to strong southeast to east winds expected
across the gulf waters, especially if a tropical system does develop
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and produces long period
swells. The latest PETSS shows tide levels at Aransas Pass up to 2ft
MSL (advisory conditions) by early Tue morning and approaching 3ft
MSL (warning conditions)late Tuesday evening into early Wed
morning. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Watch and High Rip Current
Risk are in effect beginning tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

- 70% chance of tropical development

- Moderate risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday

- Significant river flooding possible

- Significant coastal flooding and high risk of rip currents through
the week

The main concern through this forecast cycle is the potential for
tropical development across the Western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC
currently has a high (70%) chance of development for both the two
and seven day periods. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
development over the next few days. A Tropical Depression or
Tropical Storm may form and move west or west-northwest towards the
Gulf coast. The wind field associated with this low pressure in the
Gulf will be rather large. We could see winds up to 40 knots
stretching up the Texas coast. Regardless of development, we will
see an increase in our rain chances as well as a variety of coastal
concerns.

Well-above normal moisture will spread across the region over the
next several days. Latest guidance continues to suggest PWATs
nearing 3". Rainfall forecasts have trended up with amounts across
the Coastal Bend around 8-10" with the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads roughly 6-8". Isolated higher amounts are possible as
well. As a result, flash flooding and river flooding will be
possible. WPC currently has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall on
Wednesday for much of the area.

PETSS guidance suggests the threat for significant coastal flooding
will continue through the end of the work week. Tide levels will
approach 3ft MSL during high tide through Thursday. Minor coastal
flooding looks possible Friday. In addition, we will likely hang
onto a High Risk of Rip Currents through the work week.

Conditions will improve as we head towards the end of the work week
as this tropical disturbances moves off to our west and upper level
ridging begins to influence the region. With that said, rain chances
will linger as sufficient moisture remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This TAF cycle will start off fairly easy with generally VFR
conditions and isolated MVFR ceilings. There is a low to moderate
chance of showers, with chances increasing to moderate to high across
ALI, CRP, and VCT Tuesday afternoon and then into LRD and COT Tuesday
night. MVFR conditions will prevail Tuesday and will deteriorate
late Tuesday into Wednesday as heavy rain moves into South Texas.
Winds will be elevated with gusts 25-30 knots expected through
the day Tuesday; however, there is a Tropical Storm Watch in
effect across the coast, so expect winds to increase through
Wednesday, mainly over CRP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds this afternoon becoming strong
overnight into Tuesday. Strong to very strong onshore winds are
possible by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Occasional gusts
to gale force will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Wave
heights are expected to increase to 10-17 feet across the coastal
waters this week. If a stronger tropical system develops, we could
see higher values. The National Hurricane Center has a high, 70%
chance of development in the next 2 and 7 days. Regardless of
tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area
resulting in a 80-99% chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the
weekend but we will still hold onto a decent chances for showers
and storms as sufficient moisture remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  84  80  87 /  70 100  90  90
Victoria          75  82  77  87 /  60  90  70  80
Laredo            77  85  76  87 /  20  80  90  90
Alice             76  85  78  88 /  60  90  90  90
Rockport          79  89  81  90 /  80 100  90  90
Cotulla           78  86  77  89 /  10  70  80  80
Kingsville        76  83  78  87 /  70 100  90  90
Navy Corpus       80  87  83  89 /  90 100 100  90

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
     TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...LS/77