676
FXUS64 KCRP 152316
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
616 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

As you probably already knew, it`s going to be hot once again over
South Texas. We are still under the influence of the mid-level ridge
currently over the southern United States that is tracking
eastwards. So, outside of a few isolated pop-up diurnal showers and
thunderstorms we will continue to experience hot and humid
conditions through Sunday. We could flirt with some heat stress
related issues with the presence of moisture filtering back into the
area. Deterministic models have heat indices around 110 for tomorrow
which could leave a low chance for Heat Advisory criteria to be
met.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
development.

- Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances and
potential for localized flooding next week.

- Increasing risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico where conditions are favorable for gradual
development of a broad area of low pressure. There is a 50% chance
of a tropical system developing across the southwestern gulf over
the next 7 days.

Deep tropical moisture will be drawn northward from the southern
gulf early next week in response to a strengthening southeast low
level flow. PWATs are progged to increase to 2-2.5 inches across the
eastern half of S TX by Tuesday and as high as 2.8 by Wednesday. The
GFS has up to 3 inches across the southern Coastal Bend. The very
deep moisture combined with a surface to mid level tropical wave
moving west across TX, will lead to increasing rain chances through
the week. Wednesday and Thursday may possibly have the heaviest and
most widespread rainfall. However, these are days 5 and 6 and
changes to position, timing of the tropical moisture may change with
upcoming model runs. The wave is forecast to move west of the area
by Friday with decreasing rain chances as a ridge builds across S
TX.

At this time, total rainfall amounts Monday through Friday are
expected to range from 4-6 inches across the Victoria Crossroads, 3-
5 inches across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country to 1-2 inches
along the Rio Grande. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal
(5%) risk of excessive rainfall across the Victoria Crossroads
Tuesday, then a slight (15%-40%) risk across a majority of S TX on
Wednesday. The heavier downpours may lead to flash flooding,
especially across low drainage areas and urban areas.

There is also an increased risk of rip currents and minor coastal
flooding next week due to strengthening southeast to east winds
expected across the gulf waters, especially if a tropical system
does develop across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Please continue to monitor the latest updates for the upcoming week

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place along with gusty
southeasterly winds around 20 knots. Winds will gradually weaken
to around 10 knots through the evening. Similar to last night,
there will be brief window closer to sunrise where we can see MVFR
vis/cigs develop at ALI and COT. Southeasterly winds will
gradually strengthen the day with gusts around 20 knots possible
again Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the remainder
of the weekend. Moderate to strong onshore flow will develop
Monday into Tuesday, then is expected to become strong by mid week
with advisory conditions possible. The potential development of a
tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could
increase wave heights up to 8-10 feet across the offshore Texas
coastal waters. The National Hurricane Center has given this
disturbance a medium 50% chance of tropical cyclone development in
the next 7 days. Regardless of development, deep moisture is
expected to move into the area leading to a medium to high
(50-90%) chance of showers and thunderstorms by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  79  94 /  10  10  10  40
Victoria          75  94  75  93 /   0  10  10  50
Laredo            78 104  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             75  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  30
Rockport          83  94  82  93 /  10  20  20  50
Cotulla           78 103  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  98  78  96 /   0  10  10  40
Navy Corpus       83  93  83  92 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TC/95