378
FXUS64 KCRP 210801
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
301 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge
anchored across the Southern Plains. This ridge will remain in
control for one more day before it begins to flatten out on
Sunday as an upper trough lifts across the Plains. Just as we saw
yesterday, can`t rule out a few tropical funnels this morning as
winds remain light over the Middle Texas coast. We continue with a
low (~20%) chance of showers and storms along the sea breeze
today and tomorrow as low level moisture remains in place. Any
storms that develop will be capable of gusty winds as forecast
soundings hint at DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. Light winds tonight
will promote another round of patchy fog and low level stratus
across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.

High temperatures today will warm into the low 90s along the coast
to the mid 90s out west. Heat indices look to range from 100-105
which would promote a moderate heat risk for most of the region. A
weakening ridge will help us trim off a couple of degrees from our
highs on Sunday.

Lastly, we continue to monitor for minor coastal flooding during
our next few high tide cycles. Swells periods are about 7s as of
writing. Gerling-Hanson plots have been persistent in suggesting a
secondary wave system around 9-10s. However, swell heights should
remain less than a foot. Therefore, confidence is low in our
coastal flood threat at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The long term continues to remain on track from the previous
issuance. The mid level ridge that is currently over the region is
expected to shift eastwards early next week concurrently with a
mid to upper level trough digging into Texas. This is expected to
eject a cold front that will stall to the north before dissipating
before it reaches the area. These factors will allow for moisture
to seep back into the area allowing for daily sea breeze showers
and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given the
high temperatures remaining in the 90s and present moisture
through the long term there will be a Minor to Moderate Risk for
heat related impacts.

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor an area of
disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that now has 60% chance of
development over the next 7 days. Continue to be prepared as
hurricane season doesn`t end until November 30th
(www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A similar pattern to the previous few days will lead to a fairly
consistent TAF forecast. Model guidance still struggles with any
fog development but, since persistence suggests we keep some
morning fog in for ALI and VCT, have put a mention of MVFR to LIFR
visibility, as well as MVFR ceilings, for these sites from 09Z
through 14Z. MVFR ceilings will also be possible for LRD and COT,
so have this mentioned from 11Z-14Z as well. Currently, have no
mention of showers for any site, but it is not out of the question
that sites may need this added as isolated showers will be
possible Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the
weekend along with low chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The combination of light winds and sufficient low level moisture
may lead to tropical funnel development both this morning and
Sunday morning. Most of these funnel clouds will be short lived
and typically do not touch the ground. However, you should be
prepared to seek shelter in the event a funnel does reach the
ground. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
this weekend to 30-60% next week as a cold front stalls north of
the area. Onshore flow is expected to increase to moderate by mid
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  77  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
Victoria          95  73  93  72 /   0   0  20   0
Laredo            96  77  95  74 /  10   0  10   0
Alice             94  75  94  73 /  20   0  20   0
Rockport          92  80  92  79 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           97  77  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
Kingsville        92  76  92  74 /  20   0  20   0
Navy Corpus       88  81  88  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...LS