Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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901 FXUS64 KCRP 140503 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1203 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A few showers continue to drift westward mainly across portions of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads this afternoon. This activity is expected to dwindle into the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Much drier conditions will develop tonight into Friday as ridging takes a hold aloft and with PWATs falling to below normal levels (~1.5") for the season. Rain chances inland will be below 10% tonight through Friday night, with some slight chances (15-30%) persisting over the offshore waters owing to slightly deeper moisture available. In regards to the temperature forecast through tomorrow night, temps will be similar to today areawide. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s inland to the low 80s along the coast. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s along the coast to near 102 degrees out west. A few spots may briefly reach Advisory criteria, especially across portions of the Southern Coastal Bend. However, at this time confidence is not high enough to grant a product issuance. Will pass it on to the midnight shift for re-evaluation. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns early next week - Increasing moisture and rain chances next week This weekend we will experience hot and humid conditions once again as the ridge of high pressure transitions more to the east. Models still are in agreement that an inverted trough will develop in the southwestern Gulf bringing a disturbance that will more than likely track into Mexico. Both of these factors will allow for deep tropical moisture to surge into the area increasing PWATs to around 2.5+ by midweek. Rain chances start low this weekend and will steadily increase early next week in the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. NHC has maintained a 40% chance for development at this time over the next 7 days. This being said, we don`t anticipate any landfalling impacts at this time though this will be monitored so check back for future updates. With the forecast shaping up to feature multiple days of rainfall, another threat to keep in mind will be the potential for flooding. We are also monitoring the potential for marine and coastal related impacts such as high rip currents, coastal flooding, etc. Heat stress conditions will be expected next week with the influx of moisture in the area especially out west in the Brush Country. However, with the increased rain chances temperatures will likely be limited by midweek with highs around the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions persist through this period for most of the area. Could see a brief MVFR CIG at ALI toward morning. Light to moderate winds at LRD will subside over the next couple of hours. Winds will increase to moderate levels again behind the sea breeze for all sites tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow tonight will increase to more moderate levels Monday night into Tuesday. With an area of disturbed weather expected over the western Gulf, wave heights are forecast to increase through next week. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The NHC has given this disturbance a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Low rain chances (20-30%) will exist tonight through the weekend before increasing to medium to high chances early next week (50-80%). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 96 78 94 / 0 10 0 20 Victoria 75 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 79 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 98 74 98 / 0 10 0 20 Rockport 82 94 82 94 / 0 10 0 20 Cotulla 78 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 98 77 95 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 83 92 82 92 / 0 10 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...PH/83