Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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737 FXUS64 KCRP 190518 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A Tropical Storm warning is in effect as an area of low pressure spins over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gradual strengthening has occurred during the day today and more convection is developing around the low. Still difficult to pinpoint the center as we watch for when it becomes a closed low. The system is moving slowly towards the north near 6 mph and is expected to turn northwest then west accompanied by an increase in forward speed. Some increase in strength is expected as atmospheric conditions are conducive for gradual development. This system is currently progged to become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow and landfall Thursday morning in Mexico. Most convection today has been offshore with a few smaller storms making it inland. Satellite derived PWAT values are now over 2.0" along the coast and is expected to increase to around 3.0" according to GEFS ensemble plumes for KCRP. Heavy rain continues to be the primary concern with this system, and rainfall totals of 4-10" are expected along the Coastal Bend with localized higher amounts up to 15" are possible where some of the heavier bands set up. Rainfall rates will be a concern with 2-3"/hour rates increasing the concern for flash flooding. The most widespread/heaviest convection looks to be after midnight tonight through Thursday. The next notable impact from this system will be coastal flooding. Storm surge up to 3 feet and tidal levels will combine to result in significant coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast. Tidal levels at Port Aransas have topped 2" MSL which is already coastal flood advisory criteria. P-ETSS guidance has tides approaching 3 feet which would result in significant coastal flooding. These levels would completely shut off beach roads, and push water over many low/coastal flood prone areas along the bays including Rockport, North Beach and Port O`Connor. Tide levels will begin to subside on Thursday. Winds have increased little during this forecast package. Highest winds associated with system remain displaced well north of the center, so while landfall of an eventual cyclone is expected to be in Mexico, the strongest winds will be pushing into the Middle Texas Coast. Over the waters, winds gusting to 65 mph or higher are possible, but winds will quickly diminish over land, with 45 to 55 mph gusts possible along the coast, especially within some of the convective bands. Finally, there is a limited risk for tornadoes tomorrow across most of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Thursday evening is when things are expected to taper off as the system moves further inland. Moisture will linger and rain chances remain through at least Friday and into the weekend as the surface ridge remains over the eastern US with general weakness to persist over the western Gulf. High temperatures that will be in the low to mid-80s for mid-week will creep back up into the 90s by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 This TAF forecast is very tricky. First, we have a tropical storm warning over our coastal counties. Winds could gust to around 45 knots along the coast. Sites further inland like COT and LRD are likely to keep gusts in the 25-30 knot range for this afternoon. With this tropical storm comes a lot of tropical moisture. Rain bands will move through South Texas today with heavy showers and thunderstorms. High rainfall rates are likely to reduce visibility to IFR/LIFR as the bands move ashore and across the area. Ceilings are also going to become IFR/LIFR across the area. These conditions are expected by around 12Z across the east, then will spread to the west through the day. All in all, terrible weather for flying unless you really need to. && .MARINE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong onshore winds are occurring. Wave heights are expected to increase to 13 feet up to around 20 feet across the coastal waters Today through Thursday. Deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 80-100% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the weekend but we will still hold onto a decent chances for showers and storms as sufficient moisture remains in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 88 78 89 / 100 90 60 70 Victoria 77 88 75 90 / 70 70 20 50 Laredo 76 88 76 89 / 100 90 60 70 Alice 77 88 75 91 / 100 90 50 80 Rockport 82 91 82 92 / 90 90 60 70 Cotulla 77 89 77 93 / 90 80 30 50 Kingsville 78 87 77 88 / 100 90 60 80 Navy Corpus 83 90 83 89 / 100 90 70 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447. Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...LS/77