391
FXUS64 KCRP 252259
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
559 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening for the Southern
Coastal Bend

- Potential for some tropical funnels again tomorrow morning

Due to the higher afternoon temperatures and abundance of moisture
in the region aiding upper 70s dew points, areas along the Southern
Coastal Bend are seeing heat indices around 110-114F. This prompted
the issuance of a Heat Advisory through this evening due to the risk
of heat stress related conditions. There will be a similar potential
to reach criteria tomorrow though there is uncertainty the duration
so the decision will be to hold off for now. This will be monitored
closely tomorrow for the a potential issuance. With the presence of
tropical moisture and passing shortwaves through the area, isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow similar to
today`s evolution.

With winds being relatively light again tomorrow morning and
reminiscent of this morning, tropical funnels will be possible
again tomorrow. A few developed here at the office through the
course of the this morning into the afternoon before the winds
picked up. Any tropical funnels that do develop should be very
brief and should typically not reach the ground though this
remains a responsibility.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts with heat indices 105-110

- Daily rain chances, greatest Friday and Sunday (30-40%)

A broad west-east oriented ridge over the southern CONUS will be
accompanied by an inverted shortwave along the Texas Coast Thursday
then move inland westward over South Texas on Friday. This will lead
to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances from 20% Thursday
(PWATs 2") to 20-40% on Friday (PWATs 2.2"). The ridge will amplify
and become more circular over the southern Great Plains early next
week. Moisture will remain well above normal with a series of
inverted shortwaves allowing for daily low rain chances (20-30%)
Saturday through Monday. One of these shortwaves is associated with
a current disturbances being monitored by the NHC. The NHC has a 20%
chance of tropical cyclone formation as this tropical wave moves
from the western Caribbean to the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Heat
index values will generally range from 105-110 across South Texas
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight, with periods of
MVFR ceilings and visibility expected in the early morning hours
for COT, VCT, and ALI. VFR conditions will return in the mid-
morning hours. Generally light southeast winds will persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Still expect low chances (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
offshore accompanied by generally weak onshore flow through tomorrow.
Weak to moderate flow will develop tonight then persist through
late this week before increasing to moderate Friday afternoon
through Saturday. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  93  79  93 /   0  10   0  20
Victoria          78  93  76  93 /  10  20   0  20
Laredo            78  98  78  97 /  10   0   0  10
Alice             77  96  77  96 /   0  10   0  20
Rockport          83  92  82  93 /   0  10   0  20
Cotulla           80 101  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  94  78  93 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       83  90  82  90 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...LS/77