335
FXUS64 KCRP 231724
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Synopsis:
The short term forecast period is characterized by a mid-level
high near ARK/LA/TX this morning and is expected to retro-grade
west over west Texas/NM by tomorrow. A broad area of low pressure
is forming in the southwestern Gulf with minimal impacts expected
along the Middle Texas Coast. This weather pattern will be
accompanied by isolated to scattered showers/storms, light winds,
coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents.

Current Conditions:
-Showers: A few Isolated showers have developed overnight and
 early this morning with most activity thus far staying south of
 our CWA.


Today/Tonight:
- Precipitation: Expect a moderate 50-70% chance of precipitation
  this morning along the southern Coastal Bend, shifting to the
  west over the southern Brush Country this afternoon with a break
  overnight tonight.

Tomorrow:
- Precipitation: low chances (20-40%) for showers/thunderstorms
  near the Coastal Bend in the morning, then coverage spreads
  across the region during the afternoon.

Temperature Forecast:
- Near Normal Temperatures: Temperatures will continue to hover
  near normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s
  to mid 90s today and a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Expect
  overnight lows tonight in the mid 70s to low 80s.
- Heat Indices: Heat indices are expected to be between 105-109
  this afternoon increasing slightly tomorrow to around 110
  degrees in several locations. A Heat Advisory is not expected at
  this time.

Tropical:
- A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf remains
  relatively disorganized, but has a medium 40% chance of
  tropical development this weekend. This system is expected to
  have little to no impacts expected to South Texas as it is
  progged to stay south of our region, affecting the eastern
  Mexican coast.
- Local Effects: South Texas could experience some increased
  swells and isolated showers/storms. The Lower Rio Grande Valley
  is projected to receive the heaviest rainfall.

Coastal Conditions:
- Water Levels: Elevated water levels persist today with minor
  coastal flooding accompanied by a high risk of rip currents
  across the Coastal Bend. Water levels are continuing to
  decrease.
- Coastal Flood Advisory: The Coastal Flood Advisory will remain
  in effect through Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
  impacts

- Rain chances return late this week

Dry and hot conditions are expected to return for much of the week
with a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms towards
the end of the week. A mid to upper-level ridge will remain aloft
over West Texas through Wednesday night/Thursday before weakening
and shifting to the Southeast, and elongating from west to east
just north of the region. By the end of the week, a mid- level
shortwave riding the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse
over South Texas interacting with PWAT between 1.90-2.20" which
could lead to showers and/or thunderstorms. As confidence still
remains low due to this feature being on day 8, only went with low
to medium chances for rain.

With increased subsidence from the ridge and a moist shallow layer,
elevated to dangerous heat indices (feels like temperatures) are
expected to once again rear its ugly head into the forecast. Current
probabilities of exceeding heat indices of 109 degrees (Heat
Advisory conditions) are 30-50% Tuesday through Thursday from the
Coastal Bend to the Brush Country and 10-25% to exceed 114 degrees
(Excessive Heat Warning conditions)for the aforementioned area.
Chances for heat indices over 109 degrees across the Victoria
Crossroads will be low with a less than 25% chance. With the
elevated to dangerous heat indices returning, the entire region will
have a moderate risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday through the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the afternoon hours. The better chance for TSRAs will be CRP, ALI
and LRD TAF sites. Rain chances diminish this evening then
increase overnight into Monday morning. Otherwise, expecting VFR
conditions to prevail through much of the TAF period with brief
periods of MVFR conditions either due to convection or possible
patchy fog overnight. IFR conditions can not be ruled out with the
heavier downpours. Surface winds will generally be light from the
east and southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today a moderate 40-70% chance for showers offshore becoming a low
chance around 15-30% tonight. Weak to moderate easterly flow this
morning becomes southeasterly tonight. There`s a Weak to moderate
onshore flow is expected for much of the week before increasing
to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots) Friday. Rain chances
will be low throughout the week with seas subsiding to under 3
feet Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  79  91  79 /  60  10  20   0
Victoria          92  76  93  76 /  30   0  20   0
Laredo            91  77  94  78 /  60  30  20   0
Alice             91  76  93  76 /  60  10  30   0
Rockport          91  81  92  82 /  40  10  20   0
Cotulla           95  78  96  79 /  20  10  10   0
Kingsville        90  78  92  78 /  60  10  30   0
Navy Corpus       89  82  90  82 /  60  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TE/81