222
FXUS64 KCRP 182016
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
316 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Persistence will be the main driver of the short term forecast as
a mid-level high builds over TX with an area of low pressure
along the east coast and another low near the CA coast. This will
promote mostly dry conditions with very low chances (10-20%) for
any precipitation driven by the seabreeze. No other lifting
mechanisms are expected and PWAT`s will decrease from around 2
inches this morning to around 1.8 inches tomorrow as the mid-
levels dry out even more.

Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will settle in the 85-100 degree
range with overnight lows around 75-80 degrees. Despite persistence,
temperatures may be a degree or two higher tomorrow, increasing the
likelihood for a Heat Advisory but will let the next shift take
another look and decide if one is needed. Heat indices this
afternoon are approaching 110 along the Coastal Bend. Tomorrow heat
indices will range 105-110 with the Coastal Bend/Coastal Plains
expected to be on the higher end. Regardless, the HeatRisk will be
Moderate to Major and still poses a danger. Please continue to take
proper precautions to avoid the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Key Message:

- Low chances for coastal flooding this weekend

The early portion of the extended forecast continues to be dominated
by a mid to upper level ridge increasing subsidence across the area
with near normal moisture. Although wide spread showers aren`t
expected this weekend, there is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms developing each afternoon activated by the seabreeze.
By early next week, an mid level low pressure will swing through the
Rockies and Four Corners region ejecting a cold front into Texas.
While this front is expected to stall north of our CWA next week,
moisture pooling up ahead of the stalled front will increase our
rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday with a low (15-25%) chance of
widespread showers across the region. Near normal temperatures are
expected each day and night, especially next week with the added
cloud cover and possible precipitation ahead of the stalled front.

Coastal flooding will once again be a concern across the Gulf facing
beaches of South Texas this weekend. Models are showing 8 to 9
second swell periods returning to the region increasing water levels
to 1.7-1.9 feet above mean sea level. If this verifies, there will
be a low chance for coastal flooding with beach inundation up to 1
foot during times of high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions with southeast flow gusting to around 20 knots
across most TAF sites during the afternoon/evening hours. Tonight
will be similar to last night but with a higher fog potential.
Tonight VFR/MVFR ceilings/vsby`s expected across most sites but
have IFR for ALI. Less confident about IFR conditions elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow may become moderate at times
through the end of the week. There`s a low (10-20%) chance for
showers the rest of the week, mainly offshore. Weak to moderate
onshore flow is expected this weekend into next week. Low (15-25%)
chances for rain this weekend will increase to low to medium
(25-50%) chances next week as a cold front stalls north of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  92  78  92 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          75  96  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            77  96  78  96 /   0  10  10  10
Alice             76  96  75  95 /   0  20   0  20
Rockport          80  93  80  92 /   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        77  93  77  93 /   0  20   0  20
Navy Corpus       81  88  80  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...BF