085
FXUS64 KCRP 152001
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
301 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Key Message:

- Low chance of flash flooding over the Brush Country through
  tonight

An elongated low located over eastern Mexico around the 700mb
level from Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone Ilena will continue to
usher in mid-level moisture and funnel southeasterly Gulf moisture
through tonight over portions of South Texas. A remnant old
frontal boundary extending from the western Gulf across South
Texas is acting as a lifting mechanism for showers and storms to
develop in addition to 300mb divergence. The sea breeze is having
a more noticeable impact in convection over Deep South Texas with
a recent lightning jump.

Satellite is depicting PWAT values around 2.6" over Deep South
Texas, which likely advects over the Rio Grande Plains. Therefore,
maintain a medium to high chance (30-70%) of showers through the
rest of this afternoon, then decrease to around 30-40% tonight
over the southern half of the CWA. Instability is greatest
south of the area, anticipate convection more in the form of
showers than thunderstorms. Although most of the development will
occur over the western half of the CWA, the mid to upper level
westerly flow aloft will drift stratiform rain over portions of
the eastern CWA.

Enhanced moisture and PVA will linger around the Rio Grande and
southern CWA Monday, just enough to warrant a 20-40% chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The aforementioned low over Mexico
will wash out and get replaced by a mid-level ridge Monday night,
diminishing rain chances as PWATs fall below 2.0".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts mid to late week.

Ridging will settle back over the region during the Extended period
bringing drier air aloft. However, daily low rain/storm chances will
remain in the forecast through late week as there will still be
enough low-level moisture around to combine with daytime instability
to spark a few showers along the sea breeze.

A mid-level trough will approach from the west over the weekend,
however, the brunt of any notable forcing with this trough will
remain well north of the region. It may aid in a low chance (<25%)
of more widespread precipitation, though confidence is very low at
this time.

The main headlines through the extended period will once again be
the heat. Warm temperatures and high dewpoints will lead to heat
index values in the 105-114 range all week, with the warmest days
being Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be required. The
HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major through the end of the work
week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Heavy showers over the Brush Country and steady rain around LRD
will cause MVFR ceilings to stick around through at least the
next few hours before breaks to VFR are possible later in the
afternoon into early evening. However, I would not be surprised if
MVFR ceilings persist through the entire time period with
consistent convection around the area. MVFR ceilings also linger
over VCT but expect conditions to improve to VFR here shortly.
Light rain is advecting eastward across South Texas but greatest
impacts will remain focused over the Brush Country and LRD. Light
variable winds are expected through the forecast with patchy fog
and MVFR ceilings potential again over ALI/VCT from 09-14Z. Rain
chances diminish late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak south to southeast flow will continue through Monday
night. Onshore flow will then strengthen slightly to weak to
moderate through next weekend. There is a low (15-30%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  92  76  92 /  30  10   0  10
Victoria          75  96  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
Laredo            74  88  75  94 /  50  40  10  20
Alice             75  95  74  96 /  30  20   0  10
Rockport          78  90  78  92 /  30  10   0  10
Cotulla           73  95  74  97 /  10  20   0  10
Kingsville        76  92  75  94 /  30  30   0  10
Navy Corpus       79  87  79  88 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....CLM/93
AVIATION...EMF/94