314
FXUS64 KCRP 210506
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1206 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chance for coastal flooding this weekend

Mid to upper level ridging is expected to continue through tomorrow
night. With near to slightly above normal moisture hanging around,
another low chance for showers is expected tomorrow afternoon as the
sea breeze develops and moves inland. Light and variable winds are
expected tonight and tomorrow night across South Texas with a low to
medium chance for patchy fog to develop with a low chance for
isolated areas of dense fog. Slightly above normal temperatures
tonight will drop to near normal for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow
night. The threat for coastal flooding will increase this weekend
and long period swells continue across the region. The P-ETSS model
is showing water levels increasing to 1.7-1.8 feet above MSL tonight
and 1.8-2.0 feet above tomorrow night at times of high tide. The
only variable keeping the coastal flood risk at bay is the swell
heights remaining under 1 foot. Lastly, with sufficient low level
moisture and relatively light winds expected again tomorrow,
tropical funnel clouds could briefly develop along the Coastal Bend
and Gulf waters.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Mid-level ridging initially overhead will shift eastward and flatten
out as we head into next week as a deep mid-level trough digs south
into Texas. This trough brings a cold front through north and
potentially central Texas, but it looks to dissipate before having
any affect on our area. Overall, despite the calendar changing to
fall on Sunday, we`re not going to see any traditional fall like
conditions on the horizon...but we live in South Texas and we`re
used to that.  High temperatures remain persistent in the 90s daily
with heat index values north of 100 through mid-week.  Isolated
showers and storms will be possible daily through the weekend but
expect limited activity with PWATs forecast to be generally below
normal through early next week. Moisture will begin to increase by
Tuesday/Wednesday next week and we could see an uptick in activity.

We continue to keep an eye on an area of disorganized convection in
the northwest Caribbean. The NHC continues to hold a 40% chance of
development on this area, but guidance confidence in the details of
its future is low as guidance is all over the place in progression,
first in terms of when it may organize, and then it`s future
movement/strength. We do note a slight increase in swell heights
by mid to late next week associated with this activity, but that
will be dependent on future development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A similar pattern to the previous few days will lead to a fairly
consistent TAF forecast. Model guidance still struggles with any
fog development but, since persistence suggests we keep some
morning fog in for ALI and VCT, have put a mention of MVFR to LIFR
visibility, as well as MVFR ceilings, for these sites from 09Z
through 14Z. MVFR ceilings will also be possible for LRD and COT,
so have this mentioned from 11Z-14Z as well. Currently, have no
mention of showers for any site, but it is not out of the question
that sites may need this added as isolated showers will be
possible Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through
Saturday night with low chances for showers and thunderstorms. With
light winds tomorrow morning and sufficient low level moisture,
tropical funnel clouds could briefly develop across the Gulf
waters. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
this weekend to 30-60% chance next week as a cold front stalls
north of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  77  91 /   0  20   0  10
Victoria          74  94  73  92 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            78  95  76  96 /  10  10   0  10
Alice             76  93  74  94 /   0  20   0  10
Rockport          80  92  79  91 /   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           78  96  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        78  91  75  92 /   0  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       81  88  80  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...LS/77