300
FXUS64 KCRP 172331
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate Risk of of heat-related impacts

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to expand into the region
from northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. This will increase
subsidence across the region and lower our PWAT to around 1.5" which
is just a touch below our climatological daily mean for this time of
the year. The only chance for rain will be tomorrow afternoon with
the sea breeze with a very low (less than 15%) chance for showers.
Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from
the lower to the upper 90s. Conversely, the overnight lows will run
about 5 degrees above normal with lows ranging from the mid to upper
70s for most of the region with sites along the immediate coast
remaining above 80s. While models continue to struggle with fog,
opted to go with persistence and included some areas of patchy fog
from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Morning and afternoon showers and storms possible (~20%) along the
  Coastal Bend most of the week.

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts through Friday.

Forecast remains on track through the long term. Ridging aloft will
generally remain in control through the work week, before beginning
to flatten out into early next week as a trough swings across the
Central CONUS. Daily bouts of slight rain and storm chances will
continue (PoPs ~20%), mainly induced by the sea breeze in
conjunction with the arrival of pockets of slightly deeper moisture
(PWATs 1.6-1.8"). Temperatures will stay at above normal levels
through the entire period, with highs in the 90s, and overnight lows
in the 70s. The HeatRisk is forecast to be at Moderate to Major
levels Thursday and Friday, and then at Minor to Moderate over the
weekend into early next week. Heat index values may near or exceed
Advisory criteria Thursday and Friday.

Minor coastal flooding may become a concern late this week as
astronomical tides increase in response to the full moon, though
confidence in this is very low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail tonight. With little change in the
forecast pattern, expect we will still experience fog in the
morning as we have in the past few mornings. Model guidance has
not handled this well over the last few days so, based on
persistence, have included TEMPO groups for IFR/LIFR fog for VCT
and ALI. For the same reasoning, have included MVFR ceilings for
CRP, LRD, and VCT in the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Light and variable winds can be expected tonight and tomorrow night
with winds increasing to light to moderate tomorrow afternoon. Weak
to at times moderate onshore flow will continue through the
weekend. There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  92  78  92 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          74  95  75  96 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            77  95  78  96 /  10   0   0  10
Alice             75  95  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          80  92  79  92 /   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           77  98  79  99 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        76  93  77  93 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       81  88  81  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...LS/77