Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
353 FXUS64 KCRP 150717 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 217 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The mid-level ridge across the southern U.S will begin to break down this afternoon as a trough moves into the Central Plains. Winds will increase from weak to moderate today. Moisture will begin a slow return to the area Sunday over the offshore waters, which could lead to a low chance of showers and thunderstorms over the waters. Temperatures will continue to be in the low 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country. Moisture will still generally remain limited over the offshore waters, keeping our heat index values below 110 for most of the area. That being said, there is still the chance that some isolated locations could reach heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Key Messages: - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development. - Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances next week. The long-term forecast begins with a surface low developing over the Rockies, which will deepen as an upper trough moves over the Northwestern CONUS. This, combined with surface high pressure and mid-level ridging over the Southeastern CONUS, will increase the pressure gradient, enhancing onshore flow and bringing rich Gulf moisture (PWATS around 2.00-2.80 inches) into South Texas. Additionally, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Bay of Campeche for potential tropical development this weekend or early next week, with a 50% chance of development over the next seven days. Models consistently indicate the formation of a system that is likely to move north and westward into Mexico. This system is expected to further tighten the pressure gradient, increasing winds along the Middle Texas Coast and heightening the heavy rainfall threat for mid to late next week. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday across much of the Coastal Bend and a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday across much of the Coastal Plains. Any storms that form during this time may move slowly and have the potential to produce heavy localized rainfall. While there continues to be model spread regarding rainfall totals across the region, the NBM along with the global ensemble models continue to hint of values between 1.75-3.50 inches in the areas covered by the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. In addition to the potential of heavy rainfall, the region can anticipate stronger east to southeast winds, leading to larger swells, elevated tides, coastal flooding, and a higher risk of rip currents. However, this forecast is subject to change as we are still days out. As moisture increases next week, heat indices are expected to reach 105-110 degrees for Monday and Tuesday, with a slight chance of heat advisory conditions. However, due to cloud cover and chances for showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will become a bit more temperate Wednesday through Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. East- southeasterly winds have picked up a bit over the last few hours with occasional gusts around 20 knots. Winds will gradually become weak this evening. Brief MVFR conditions are possible at ALI/COT/VCT Saturday morning. Wind gusts around 20 knots will be possible through the afternoon before weakening shortly after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend. Moderate to strong onshore flow develops Monday into Tuesday and continues throughout the upcoming week. The potential development of a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche could increase winds to over 20 knots and wave heights up to 8-10 feet. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory issuance. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium 50% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Rain chances are set to increase with this area of disturbed weather to 50-80%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 78 95 79 / 10 0 20 10 Victoria 95 74 95 76 / 10 0 20 10 Laredo 101 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 98 76 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 94 82 95 81 / 10 10 20 30 Cotulla 103 77 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 77 97 78 / 10 0 20 10 Navy Corpus 92 83 89 83 / 10 10 30 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS/77 LONG TERM....KRS/98 AVIATION...TC