Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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600 FXUS64 KCRP 142249 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 549 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Key Message: - Low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through the day Sunday for the Rio Grande Plains into southern Coastal Bend - Widespread moderate risk of heat-related impacts Sunday Tropical Storm Ileana along the west coast of Mexico will advect Pacific moisture and PVA eastern into portions of South Texas tonight through Sunday. Latest guidance shows an axis of enhanced moisture with PWATs 2.2-2.4" along the Rio Grande Plains into the southern Coastal Bend. The aforementioned area (south and west of I-37) will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms with a low to medium chance (20-40%). There will be a distinct gradient of moisture with the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads in an area of normal PWATs values 1.5-1.7". The projected mid-level shortwave from Ileana will move eastward into the NW Gulf Sunday night and be replaced by dry northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds over Texas. Rain chances diminish across the area Monday night. Mostly cloudy skies over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Coastal Plains will limit high temperatures to low 90s, whereas the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads will have more breaks in clouds and less moisture, allowing for highs to climb into the mid 90s. Heat index values will range from 105-109 primarily over the Coastal Plains, resulting in a moderate risk of heat-related impacts. Lows will stay in the mid to upper 70s with increased cloud cover tonight, but drier air and clearer skies Sunday night will drop lows a few degrees, into the low to mid 70s. Tide levels will continue to remain below coastal flood concerns as swell periods sit around 4 seconds with wave heights of only 1-2 feet. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium (20-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday out west - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country, and Minor to Moderate across the remainder of South Texas through the end of the work week The long term period begins with remnant deep moisture moving into the region from the tropical system in the Pacific which will combine with moisture also advecting in from the Gulf of Mexico. Associated energy is expected to combine with the sea breeze which will allow for at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly in the Brush Country Monday. Some drier air aloft should keep the showers and thunderstorms mostly in check though. Looking forward through the end of the week, expect a daily low chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with the arrival of the sea breeze. Temperatures will be in the 90s each day through the remainder of the week. Expect heat indices to approach 110 with the presence of that low level moisture. This is expected to lead to a Moderate to Major risk for heat related impacts mainly in the Brush Country though some isolated areas along the Coastal Bend cannot be ruled out. For now though, expect Minor to Moderate for the remainder of South Texas through the end of the week. With heat indices flirting around that 110 mark, we will monitor the potential need for a heat advisory. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals along with southeasterly winds around 10-15 knots. A few gusts around 20 knots will be possible through the evening hours. As we have seen the last few nights, another round of MVFR ceilings/visibilities is possible at ALI/VCT from 10-14Z. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase out west overnight as moisture streams over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Maintained the PROB30 mention at LRD where chances look the greatest. Introduced VCSH at COT late tonight and at ALI/CRP Sunday afternoon as activity looks to spread east. There is a low chance for TS at the eastern sites on Sunday. Will be monitoring the trends through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A weak south to southeast flow will persist through Monday. There is a low 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Sunday as Pacific moisture advects from Pacific Tropical Storm Ileana. Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will then persist through the end of the week. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 76 92 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 75 97 74 97 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 79 90 76 95 / 30 40 20 40 Alice 77 94 74 96 / 0 20 10 20 Rockport 80 89 77 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 79 94 75 99 / 10 20 0 10 Kingsville 78 93 76 94 / 0 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 81 87 79 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...TC/95