450
FXUS64 KCRP 190845
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
345 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today is the main day of action for PTC1. We`re watching a large
area of rain moving toward the coast early this morning and will
expect this to be in place much of the day. Still quite a bit of
spread in rainfall amounts among the guidance, and there will no
doubt be a lot of spread in realized rainfall totals with bands
setting up over some areas and not others. We`re still expecting
between 8 and 10 inches of rain in the southern Coastal Bend with
some higher amounts closer to 15 inches possible under the
persistent bands. Elsewhere an area wide 4 to 8 inches is
anticipated. With PWAT values expected to approach 3 inches this
morning, rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour would be likely.
These rates can quickly lead to ponding and flash flooding, thus
the flood watch in effect through mid-day tomorrow.


The circulation around this disturbance remains very broad and not
well defined. Strong winds spread north and northeastward a very
impressive 360 miles from the center. Have noted winds gusting as
high as 32 knots overnight among the sparse observations. It`s
likely higher gusts are occurring farther offshore within the
convection. We could see wind gusts as high as 50 miles per hour
over coastal counties today with higher gusts over the waters.

Coastal flooding is ongoing with numerous reports of water in dunes
and over roadways all along the coast. Expect this to continue
through at least Thursday. Have extended the Coastal Flood warning
through 00Z Friday as guidance indicates high tide times to not fall
below 2 feet until then. The Rip current risk has also been extended
through mid-day Friday with high long period swells being slow to
subside.

Conditions will improve Thursday as the circulation center shifts
west of the area. Rain chances decrease, but will not drop
completely as deep moisture remains high over the area and a
generally unsettled pattern continues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

After a relative lull in rain chances Friday, we could see another
increase in rain chances for the weekend as yet another weakness
passes south of our area PWAT values are considerably lower than
current, but still above normal in the 2-2.5" range. Expect the
heaviest rains to fall south of us with this system, but depending
on how much rain we get today and tomorrow, it may not take much to
be a further concern into the weekend. Early next week looks to have
another down trend in rainfall probabilities as upper level ridging
shifts more over our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

This TAF forecast is very tricky. First, we have a tropical storm
warning over our coastal counties. Winds could gust to around 45
knots along the coast. Sites further inland like COT and LRD are
likely to keep gusts in the 25-30 knot range for this afternoon.
With this tropical storm comes a lot of tropical moisture. Rain
bands will move through South Texas today with heavy showers and
thunderstorms. High rainfall rates are likely to reduce visibility
to IFR/LIFR as the bands move ashore and across the area. Ceilings
are also going to become IFR/LIFR across the area. These
conditions are expected by around 12Z across the east, then will
spread to the west through the day. All in all, terrible weather
for flying unless you really need to.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dangerous marine conditions continue today with gale force wind
gusts expected through the day. With a very large wind field, wave
heights are expected to build to as high as 20 feet in the
offshore waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
and will persist through this afternoon and into the overnight
period as well. Winds will begin to subside Thursday with a
moderate southeasterly wind into the weekend. Seas will be slow to
subside, but should fall below 7 feet by late Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  80  89  78 / 100  90  90  60
Victoria          81  77  88  75 / 100  70  70  20
Laredo            85  76  87  77 /  90 100  80  60
Alice             83  78  89  75 / 100  90  90  50
Rockport          88  82  91  82 / 100  90  80  60
Cotulla           85  76  89  77 /  90  90  60  30
Kingsville        84  78  87  77 / 100 100  90  60
Navy Corpus       87  83  90  82 / 100 100  90  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...LS