603
FXUS64 KCRP 161949
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Moderate to heavy showers with an occasional thunderstorm have
moved over the Brush Country continuing westward in association
with an early strong storm outflow. The Brush Country is an
untapped area of instability but weak lapse rates around 5-6 C/km
from the KCRP 12Z sounding likely prohibits strong updrafts and
therefore thunderstorms. This activity will continue west-
northwest through the afternoon hours before waning into the
evening as stability increases. Skies will become mostly clear
across South Texas and low-level moisture will allow for a medium
chance of fog development over the Victoria Crossroads.

Although mid-upper level ridging will increase tonight into
Tuesday and lead to drier northwesterly flow, moist low-level flow
along with PVA from 850-700mb will stay intact over the southern
half of the CWA (mainly south and west of I-37). We`ll keep a low
15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the aforementioned
area through the day on Tuesday with PWATs around 2.0". However,
strong downdrafts from heavy showers may cause an outflow
boundary that acts as a lifting mechanism for other cells to
develop.

Again, once we lose surface heating and stability increases
Tuesday night, rain chances will quickly diminish. Lows tonight
and Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 70s with highs on
Tuesday in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will peak around
105 in areas unfortunate to miss out on any rain/sky cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Morning and afternoon showers and storms possible (~30%) along
  the Coastal Bend much of the week

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts through Friday

Ample moisture will remain in place across at least the southern
half of the Coastal Bend through at least Thursday and potentially
into the weekend as well. The GFS and its ensembles are drier than
almost all other guidance, so throwing out that guidance, the rest
are more aggressive with PWATs generally >2 inches through Thursday
and then a little drier heading into the weekend. Lingering surface
boundaries may still be in the area, but even if not, the
combination of high moisture and ample instability, along with the
sea breeze, should be more than enough to trigger at least a few
showers and storms each day through Thursday and potentially into
the weekend, though coverage would likely be less Friday and
beyond as the best moisture leaves the area.

Elsewhere, ridging will largely dominate with mostly benign weather
conditions. The combination of warmer temperatures and higher
dewpoints will continue to pose a threat as heat index values climb
back into the 105-114 range. Heat Advisories may be required, with
the warmest days expected to be Wednesday through Friday. The
HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major levels through the end of the
work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Heavy showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms made their way
from the Gulf into the southern Coastal Bend earlier this morning,
now moving along an outflow boundary to the west inland around
ALI. VSBYs have dropped to less than a mile in the heaviest
downpours with MVFR ceilings and wind gusts up to around 25 knots.
Expect this activity to continue westward and be focused over the
Brush Country and along the Rio Grande (LRD) through this
afternoon. Left out a mention in COT as guidance struggles to
reach that far north and inland but we`ll need to keep a close eye
on the progression of the outflow, could very well need an
amendment. Conditions improve to VFR rather quickly outside of
the immediate showers/storms. Rain chances diminish tonight as
skies become mostly clear and mid- upper level winds become more
continental/drier. However, low- level moisture continues to be
usher in by southeasterly flow and could aid in fog development
over the Coastal Plains. Greatest chances of the most dense fog
occurring over the Victoria Crossroads again between 09-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Onshore flow will strengthen slightly to weak to moderate through
next weekend. There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  91  77  92 /  10  20   0  30
Victoria          74  95  74  94 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo            75  93  77  95 /  20  20   0  10
Alice             74  93  75  95 /   0  30   0  20
Rockport          79  90  79  92 /  10  20   0  20
Cotulla           75  96  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        74  92  75  93 /  10  30   0  30
Navy Corpus       79  87  81  88 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....CLM/93
AVIATION...EMF/94