549
FXUS64 KCRP 200547
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto is continuing to better organize as it churns
in the southwestern Gulf. Winds and rainfall varies greatly within
each quadrant. Here`s the current information about Alberto:

Location is about 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville heading
west-southwest at 9 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are 40 MPH and the
minimum pressure is 995 MB. Alberto is expected to continue it`s
current trajectory making landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico
near Tampico early tomorrow morning.

Precipitable water (PWAT) value as of the special 18Z balloon launch
is 2.63" and may even approach 3 inches with our evening sounding as
moisture continues to increase over the region. A flood watch
remains in effect through midday tomorrow to account for these
conditions.

Current hazards that remain in effect below:

Rainfall and Flooding: There remains uncertainty in rainfall amounts
across the region, with expected totals varying significantly
depending on the location of rain bands. Several inches have fallen
over the region in the last 24 hours with some locations reporting
over 5 inches thus far and more rain is expected. We anticipate an
additional 2 to 7 inches of rain area-wide with localized higher
amounts up to 10 inches through Friday.

Tornadoes: A few tornadoes warnings have already gone out
throughout the day today. The tornado threat continues to be a
hazard across the CWA as bands from Alberto continue to stream
onshore.

Wind: The disturbances circulation is getting better organized
and is expected to continue this until landfall, with strong winds
extending up to 415 miles from the center. Local observations
recorded gusts up around 56 mph near Kingsville. Coastal counties
may see winds up to 45 MPH tonight.

Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is ongoing, with numerous reports
of water encroaching on dunes and roadways. This flooding is
expected to persist through at least Thursday and a Coastal Flood
Warning is in effect through 00Z Friday, as high tide levels are
expected to remain between 2-3 feet. The risk of rip currents
remains high and the Rip Current Risk advisory has been extended
through midday Friday due to slow-to-subside long-period swells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As Conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week,
another system could bring more rain over the weekend. The early
part of next week looks drier as upper-level ridging takes hold.
Continue to monitor updates from the National Weather Service for
the latest information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Numerous showers and occasional storms will continue across South
Texas teminals mainly south and west of I-37 through the morning
hours as T.S. Alberto approaches the coast of Mexico well to our
south. Will carry prevailing MVFR conditions with tempo groups for
strong wind gusts and IFR conditions in heavy rain through the
morning. Expect showers with occasional thunder to persist
through Thursday afternoon with MVFR ceilings with rain gradually
tapering off by Thursday evening. Winds will gradually turn from
more northerly direction to easterly through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dangerous marine conditions continue this evening and a Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong onshore
winds are occurring. Wave heights of 14 feet up to around 19 feet
across the coastal waters through Thursday. Deep moisture is still
moving into the area with a 80-100% chance of showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly
for Friday, but increase again for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  78  89  77 /  80  70  70  30
Victoria          89  75  90  74 /  60  20  50  10
Laredo            88  76  90  75 /  80  50  80  30
Alice             89  76  91  74 /  70  50  70  20
Rockport          92  81  92  81 /  70  70  70  40
Cotulla           90  76  93  76 /  70  30  50  10
Kingsville        89  77  90  76 /  80  70  80  40
Navy Corpus       89  82  90  82 /  80  80  80  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JM/75