Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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978 FXUS64 KCRP 151753 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Rain chances increased to high over the Brush Country (up to 90%) as a swath of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms move slowly northwestward over Webb and Duval counties. Radar estimates 1-3" of rainfall has fallen over the area since midnight. A Flood Advisory is out for the aforementioned area through the middle of this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop near the Rio Grande as instability increases through the day and moisture remains abnormally high at around the 99th percentile. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Key Messages: - Minor flooding in the Rio Grande Plains this morning. - Minor to moderate across South Texas, today and Monday. - Low to medium (30-60% chance) of showers and thunderstorms today for all of South Texas. - Low to medium (20-40% chance) of showers and thunderstorms for Monday over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains This morning has been a bit complicated with the 500 mb vort max that moved into the Rio Grande Plains overnight with the 2" PWAT values, kicking off a round of heavy rain. While the rain looks to be trending down this morning, another round is expected to be at least close to the Rio Grande Plains, later this morning and early this afternoon when the remnants of TS Ileana arrive. Just like this morning`s convection, the next round is expected to remain mainly in the west, and move southeast into Deep South Texas by the evening. Then tonight another shortwave, which is rather inactive when it gets to south Texas will move through and bring drier air into the region and clear out the convection for Monday morning. However, we look to still have some left over moisture in the west so as to allow us to kick off one more small bout of convection for Monday afternoon. Of course, with the rain, there will be clouds, which will help us remain a bit cooler than the last few days especially in the Rio Grande Plains as high temperatures range from the mid 80s near LRD to the mid 90s around VCT. Monday looks to shape up a bit warmer, with areas south of a line from LRD to NGP expected to be less than 95 degrees, and north of that line 95-100. So between today and Monday, we should see less heat impacts today, with the Minor to moderate impacts coming back for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts mid to late week. Ridging will settle back over the region during the Extended period bringing drier air aloft. However, daily low rain/storm chances will remain in the forecast through late week as there will still be enough low-level moisture around to combine with daytime instability to spark a few showers along the sea breeze. A mid-level trough will then follow over the weekend, crossing the Plains and maintaining a low to medium precipitation chance in the forecast through Sunday (<30%). In terms of hazards, the main headlines will once again be the heat. Warm temperatures and high dewpoints will lead to heat index values in the 105-114 range all week, with the warmest days being Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be required at later packages. The HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major through the end of the work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Heavy showers over the Brush Country and steady rain around LRD will cause MVFR ceilings to stick around through at least the next few hours before breaks to VFR are possible later in the afternoon into early evening. However, I would not be surprised if MVFR ceilings persist through the entire time period with consistent convection around the area. MVFR ceilings also linger over VCT but expect conditions to improve to VFR here shortly. Light rain is advecting eastward across South Texas but greatest impacts will remain focused over the Brush Country and LRD. Light variable winds are expected through the forecast with patchy fog and MVFR ceilings potential again over ALI/VCT from 09-14Z. Rain chances diminish late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A weak south to southeast flow will persist through Monday. There is a low 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Sunday as Pacific moisture advects from Pacific Tropical Storm Ileana. Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the work week. There is a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 75 93 75 / 40 10 10 0 Victoria 94 73 95 73 / 20 10 10 0 Laredo 85 74 93 76 / 90 50 40 0 Alice 88 74 95 74 / 60 20 20 0 Rockport 88 77 90 78 / 30 10 10 0 Cotulla 89 74 97 76 / 90 10 10 0 Kingsville 89 75 94 75 / 60 30 20 0 Navy Corpus 88 79 90 79 / 30 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...EMF/94