769
FXUS61 KCTP 141722
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
122 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeastward
across Pennsylvania this afternoon into this evening,
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. This front will be
followed by Canadian high pressure building in for this weekend,
bringing lower humidity. After that, the big story will be
building heat as a subtropical ridge builds over the eastern
United States next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers and storms continue to become more numerous
across central PA this afternoon, ahead of an approaching cold
front. A few of these storms could produce brief gusty winds and
small hail.

Ensemble plumes indicate just a few tenths of an inch rainfall
for most locations, although localized 1-2+" amounts are
possible in any persistent downpours.

Any evening showers/storms should exit the Lower Susq Valley by
late evening, as the cold front pushes east of the
commonwealth. High pressure building in behind the front should
bring clearing skies, cooler air and lower humidity overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure building southeastward into PA will
bring fair weather this weekend, with abundant sunshine, seasonably
warm days and comfortable humidity.

Dry air above a weak inversion in the model soundings suggest
dewpoints will fall below NBM guidance, especially Saturday, so
have leaned drier than guidance.

Ideal conditions for radiational cooling appear likely Sat
night under the surface high, resulting in min temps several
degrees below mid June normals. Expect temps around daybreak on
Sunday to range from the mid 40s across the nrn mtns to the mid
50s in the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An extended period of above average temperatures is increasingly
likely as a large ridge builds across the eastern US. This will
allow for MaxTs and MinTs +10 to +15F above climatology for the
middle of June. Model differences have become slightly better
resolved with respect to the strength of the ridge, outlining
higher confidence of abnormally warm temperatures extending
northward into PA.

Less humid conditions on Monday will bring heat index values
into the mid-to-upper 90s, with some valley locations across
central/southern PA pushing close to the 100F mark. Tuesday will
likely be the warmest day with most guidance showing a 597+ dm
ridge centered over or just to the east of the area. With the
surface high off to the east, southerly flow will usher in
higher dew points that will allow for heat index values to
reach 100-105 degrees over a large portion of the area. Humid
conditions will continue into Wednesday and Thursday with
anomalously warm conditions continuing into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An approaching cold front will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening across central
PA. The majority of the day, however, will feature VFR conds,
with only brief reductions and potentially gusty winds in the
vicinity of storms.

The front will push east of the area tonight, bringing an end
to any lingering shower/storm activity. After that, we are in
for a nice stretch of weather with predominantly VFR conds
prevailing through the weekend.

Much of next week will feature VFR conds as well, although a
heat wave is expected to build across the eastern United States.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...Predominantly VFR, with building heat next week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego