733
FXUS61 KCTP 250525
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead tonight bringing a clear and
cool summer night. Heat will build again by Wednesday leading to
a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day and Wednesday
night as a cold front passes. Dry weather on Thursday and Friday
will be followed by another cold front late Saturday or early
Sunday of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Wind is still diminishing, but the sky has cleared out. We`re
still expecting fog and perhaps some lower clouds to form in
cooler spots (mainly the NW mtns) tonight. All is well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The center of high pressure moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast
Tuesday, resulting in a warmer return southwest flow. Still, sfc
dewpoints will remain in the 50s, making higher temperatures
still seem tolerable. Ensemble mean 850mb temps rising to near
17C supports highs mostly in the 80s, to near 90F in the Lower
Susq Valley.

A warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks may result in
a shower or tsra Tuesday night, mainly over the NW Mtns. Surging
PWATs and falling heights ahead of an upstream cold front will
bring a much better chance of widespread showers/tsra Wednesday
afternoon. Latest guidance suggests shower/thunderstorm chances
hold off until late Wednesday afternoon or evening for most of
central pa. A ribbon of relatively strong mid level winds,
combined moderate instability, suggests organized convection and
locally severe weather is possible Wed PM. Latest ensemble
plumes indicates most likely aerial average rainfall Wed will be
around a half inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Late evening update holds no surprises. It gets hot again late
in the week, but no long-term records (except perhaps maxi-mins
Sat night) should be challenged. Relief/precip/storms come from
a cold front in the middle of the weekend (timing subject to
change slightly).

Prev...
Showers and storms will gradually exit to the the southeast on
Wednesday night as high pressure builds in. The midweek cold
front will reset the cycle similar to what today`s cold front
will do and usher in a similar stretch as Monday & Tuesday.
Thursday and Friday will consist of about 48 hours of lower
dewpoints, temperatures closer to average for this time of year,
and plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s,
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s (perhaps even upper 40s in the
northern mountains Friday morning), and dewpoints below 60F
will feel especially good with the persistent stretch of heat.

As high pressure shifts to the east on Friday, southerly flow
will support increasing temperatures and moisture into the
weekend. The chance for showers and storms will also ramp up
Saturday as a warm front lifts across the region. By Sunday, a
trailing cold front will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms and usher in another cooler stretch for the start
of July.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conds continue through the TAF period. Patchy fog is
possible into early Tuesday in NW PA, and periods of MVFR
visibilities will be possible at BFD. Can`t rule out a brief
drop to IFR visibilities, but HREF probabilities of this
occurring are less than 20%.

High clouds begin spreading into the area from the west during
the morning. The clouds will begin to lower into the evening
across the west and MVFR ceilings likely develop at BFD after
00Z as showers and potentially a thunderstorm left over from
convection to our west approach the region. A west-southwesterly
low level jet moves in to the northwest as well and will lead to
a period of LLWS as winds at 2000 feet increase to around 45
knots. Confidence is highest that BFD see LLWS, while it appears
more marginal at other airfields.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR, no sig wx expected.

Wed...Restrictions possible in TSRA.

Thu...AM SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible, drying out late.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat...Restrictions possible in TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco