Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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358 FXUS61 KCTP 160259 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1059 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Canadian high pressure will build southeastward into Pennsylvania this weekend, providing sunshine, seasonable temperatures and low humidity on Sunday. * An anomalous subtropical ridge will build over the East Coast next week, accompanied by an extended period of hot and humid weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to to build to the northwest of Pennsylvania with cloud cover breaking up across central and western Pennsylvania this evening. Cirrus associated with a weak shortwave will continue to drift towards the western periphery of the area early this evening. Cloud cover, while expected to be thin, will be one of two main deterrents for any fog formation across northern PA overnight into Sunday morning coupled with dry air at the lower levels. The thin nature of cirrus clouds will still allow for radiational cooling across the region overnight and have continued to cut back NBM MinTs, with low temperatures ranging in the mid-40s to the mid-50s which will be near-to-slightly below climatology for the middle of June. The surface high will move east of Pennsylvania on Sunday, but continue to allow for mostly to partly sunny conditions and slightly warmer temperatures with southerly flow. The bulk of central PA will lower 80s outside the highest elevations of Schuylkill County and the northern mountain zones with MinTs dipping into the 60-65F range, but could trend lower with some potential for radiational cooling depending on northward positioning of the ridge. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A subtropical ridge will begin to build along the East Coast with the passage of a surface warm front on Monday allowing for increased heat and humidity during the early stages of the work week. Cannot rule out a SChc of a shower/storm over the the higher terrain of the Allegheny Plateau on Monday where the best forcing and moisture will be available. Otherwise, it will be a very warm and increasingly humid afternoon. Heat and humidity takes hold over all of central PA on Tuesday, with an outside chance of a shower/storm across the northern tier during the afternoon and evening hours. MaxTs ranging from the lower-to-upper 90s, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to the lower 70s will allow for heat index values to push close to and slightly above the 100F mark across the Lower Susquehanna Valley with upper 90s elsewhere outside of the Laurel Highlands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperatures will easily rise into the 90s through the extended forecast period. Some question as to ultimately how high temperatures will make it as central PA does typically struggle to realize even the best outlooks for extreme heat. The last event to touch 100 degrees came on the heels of a dewpoint bomb in a localized sector of north central PA. In any event, it will be anomalously hot with concerns for the elderly, pets, and the general populae. Mesoscale models are painting a precipitation chance on Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may be realized as hot air accelerates up the mountain ridges - giving it enough upward momentum to touch off a few isolated showers/TSRA. Similar to a 1970s kid making epic jumps on their bike over a perfectly shaped hill at the elementary school - complete with a Fred Patek baseball card in the wheel spokes providing the motorcycle sounds. The atmosphere mirrors life - if you let it. Otherwise, Tuesday through Thursday appear to hold the best chance for the highest temperatures as 500 mb heights hang around 600dm with a mid June sun angle. Even as temperature relax toward next weekend, we may still see temperatures above 90 areawide. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure is bringing high confidence in widespread VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming light southeast on Sunday. Added VCFG to KBFD and KIPT as overnight low temperatures will drop to today`s afternoon dewpoints. This a lower confidence (20%-30%) forecast as conditions have been relatively dry and the nights are as short as they get so temperatures will only briefly bottom out at these values. Outlook... Sun-Thu...Predominantly VFR, with building heat next week. Density altitude concerns possible. && .CLIMATE... A period of much warmer than average temperatures is expected across much of central Pennsylvania next week, with record high temperatures being challenged. The record high temperatures for some sites across central PA are outlined below: Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Harrisburg 97/1957 98/1994 98/1931 98/1923 Williamsport 97/2018 96/1929 101/1923 97/1933 State College 94/1923 94/1931 94/1953 94/1988 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NPB NEAR TERM...NPB SHORT TERM...Evanego/NPB LONG TERM...Tyburski AVIATION...RXR/Tyburski CLIMATE...NPB