730
FXUS61 KCTP 141908
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
308 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeastward
across Pennsylvania this afternoon into this evening,
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. This front will be
followed by Canadian high pressure building in for this weekend,
bringing lower humidity. After that, the big story will be
building heat as a subtropical ridge builds over the eastern
United States next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers and storms continue to become more numerous
across central PA this afternoon, ahead of an approaching cold
front. A few of these storms could produce brief gusty winds and
small hail.

Ensemble plumes indicate just a few tenths of an inch rainfall
for most locations, although localized 1-2+" amounts are
possible in any persistent downpours.

Any evening showers/storms should exit the Lower Susq Valley by
late evening, as the cold front pushes east of the
commonwealth. High pressure building in behind the front should
bring clearing skies, cooler air and lower humidity overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure building southeastward into PA will
bring fair weather this weekend, with abundant sunshine,
seasonably warm days and comfortable humidity.

Dry air above a weak inversion in the model soundings suggest
dewpoints will fall below NBM guidance, especially Saturday, so
have leaned drier than guidance.

Ideal conditions for radiational cooling appear likely Sat
night under the surface high, resulting in min temps several
degrees below mid June normals. Temps at daybreak on Sunday
will range from the mid 40s across the nrn mtns to the mid 50s
in the Lower Susq Valley. Expect another pleasant afternoon
Sunday with low dewpoints and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
about 5 deg warmer than Saturday. Warm advection will be
underway Sunday night, with low temps in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence is increasing for a heat wave next week with the
potential for 4-6 consecutive days of MaxT 90F+ across much/all
of central PA. The prolonged nature of this heat wave may have
cumulative adverse effects on vulnerable populations exposed to
heat, with heat related illnesses possible if proper precautions
are not taken. Outdoor workers and individuals with preexisting
health conditions will be among those most at risk.

Moisture may be slow to advect into the region initially, with
dewpoints Monday afternoon expected to be in the range of
60-65F. Thus Mon heat index values are forecast in the mid to
upper 90s, with some valley locations across central/southern PA
pushing close to the 100F mark.

Tuesday through Thursday (and potentially Friday-Saturday) are
progged to be the warmest days of the week, with most guidance
showing a 595-600 dm 500 hPa ridge centered over the area.
Southerly flow will usher in higher dew points Tuesday that will
allow for heat index values to reach 100-105 degrees over a
large portion of the area. With the large high pressure system
overhead, winds will be light and clouds will be few. Keep in
mind that the sun angle will be at its max next week as we
approach the summer solstice. The intense sun and lack of a
breeze will exacerbate the impacts of heat. Beyond Thursday,
uncertainty begins to develop regarding the shape of the ridge
and the possibility of convection firing along the periphery of
the high pressure system, but the potential for highs in excess
of 90F continues through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An approaching cold front will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening across central
PA. The majority of the day, however, will feature VFR conds,
with only brief reductions and potentially gusty winds in the
vicinity of storms.

The front will push east of the area tonight, bringing an end
to any lingering shower/storm activity. After that, we are in
for a nice stretch of weather with predominantly VFR conds
prevailing through the weekend.

Much of next week will feature VFR conds as well, although a
heat wave is expected to build across the eastern United States.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...Predominantly VFR, with building heat next week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego/Colbert
LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Evanego