Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
417 FNUS28 KWNS 242050 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$