597
FNUS28 KWNS 212129
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific
shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID.
Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge
will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing
westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and
behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low
critical probabilities have been extended southward to include
south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less
than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds.
Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated
across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear
likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in
the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region
is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions
will follow D4/Monday over the same area.

Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the
majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to
upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This
decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but
limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the
introduction of low probabilities at this time.

A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible
D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as
another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse
the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be
introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details
regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge.

..Barnes.. 06/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$