143
ACUS48 KWNS 180733
SWOD48
SPC AC 180732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models indicate potential for a
shortwave trough to move out of the western US and across the
northern Plains and upper MS Valley. However, predictability is
already low by this time, with little run-to-run consistency
regarding the strength of the trough. While thunderstorms appear
likely across the region during the time frame, the degree of severe
potential remains in question. The ECMWF appears to be trending
toward a stronger trough solution in recent runs.

If this trough develops, it is expected to continue across the Great
Lakes and Northeast for the Sunday/D6 to Monday/D7 period.
Increasing flow fields with such a trough would likely result in
increased severe potential, conditional on sufficient instability
developing. Details aside, the primary message for the D4-8 period
is a breakdown of the upper ridge in the East, with a somewhat
progressive northern-stream storm track along the northern border
states, with at least low-end severe areas likely in later outlooks
as predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 06/18/2024