208
ACUS48 KWNS 140824
SWOD48
SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean
troughing over the western states for much of the period. While
moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the
northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is
uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into
the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further,
significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4
and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass
recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley
on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind
and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area
for Mon/D4.  Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible
on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the
eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024