493
ACUS48 KWNS 130716
SWOD48
SPC AC 130714

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 5/Monday -- Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota...

A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally
moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain
somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains
over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a
lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper
flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms,
though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.

...Days 6-8/Tue-Thu...

Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall
slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough.
Severe potential may increase across portions of the
northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough
ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable
environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This
overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from
the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more
progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a
stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the
western upper trough through mid-week.  Nevertheless, a broad area
of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the
northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable,
but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2024