645
ACUS48 KWNS 040852
SWOD48
SPC AC 040850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature
cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast
CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over
the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely
remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled
to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with
the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability.

General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in
moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High
Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are
forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon
thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears
possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the
variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability.
There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with
additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms
possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the
progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS
on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the
front.

..Mosier.. 06/04/2024