Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
069 ACUS48 KWNS 030833 SWOD48 SPC AC 030832 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024