Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
779 ACUS48 KWNS 230816 SWOD48 SPC AC 230815 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front. ...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week into the weekend. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024