Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
787 ACUS48 KWNS 220813 SWOD48 SPC AC 220812 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday: Central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Some severe-thunderstorm potential may evolve from the central Great Plains into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, along/ahead of a southward-moving cold front. Uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution leading into this period from D3/Monday, with some potential for the cold front to become increasingly displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, moderate to strong buoyancy and at least modest deep-layer shear could support strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...D5/Wednesday: Central/southern Great Plains into the OH Valley and Northeast... Some threat for strong to severe storms will again be possible near the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, which is generally forecast to be draped from the south-central Great Plains northeastward across the OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. There is some potential for a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough to interact with the front across the Northeast, though instability may remain somewhat limited. Farther southwest into the Plains, pre-frontal instability will be greater, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain rather weak. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday... Extended-range guidance generally supports potential for a mid/upper-level shortwave trough to amplify and move across the northern CONUS by the end of next week, though there is considerable spread regarding the timing of any such shortwave. While predictability is too low to introduce probabilities at this time, there is potential for an organized severe-thunderstorm threat to evolve somewhere from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast, during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. ..Dean.. 06/22/2024